Where the goal is still open
244 goals declared by 121 people. Declared and still in play. Nothing has settled it, so there is nothing yet to hold against it. The status is the editors' reading of the record, not a verdict on the person; the words it starts from are quoted and linked underneath each one.
Prime Minister of Canada
Preserve Canada as a trusted energy supplier
Avoid cutting oil or energy exports as tariff retaliation so Canada keeps its reputation as a reliable commodity supplier.
declared 2026-07-29
What they said they would do
2026-07-29SpeechI don't see the value of doing (it). I mean, I can understand conceptually, but I don't see the value.
Red Deer, Alberta press availability after an announcement with Premier Danielle Smith, asked whether Canada would use energy exports as leverage in the US trade war.
Carney's reluctance to weaponise oil contrasted with premiers who said everything should stay on the table.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Prime Minister of Canada
Reduce over-reliance on the United States
Pivot trade relationships and build strategic economic autonomy after declaring the old deep-integration relationship with the US over.
declared 2026-07-29
What they said they would do
2025-03-27SpeechIt is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back.
Ottawa remarks after Trump announced 25% auto tariffs; also summarised on Wikipedia's US–Canada trade-war timeline.
Defined Carney's early PM message that deep North American integration was over.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder & CEO, Anthropic
Get government to pace the industry
Transparency standards plus the 2026 pacing petition: slow everyone symmetrically, so safety isn't a competitive disadvantage.
declared 2026-07-28
What they said they would do
2026-07-28ActionAnthropic joined OpenAI in backing a petition calling on the US government to support deliberately pacing frontier AI development, so society can adapt to each new capability level.
The pacing framework Amodei had advocated became, briefly, the industry consensus position.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder & CEO, Meta
Turn Meta's AI infrastructure into a cloud business
The 2026 pivot that sent the stock soaring: sell access to Meta's models and compute rather than only monetizing ads.
declared 2026-07-28
What they said they would do
2026-07-28PublicationIf superintelligence is widely distributed, then I believe we will see more jobs in the future, not fewer. It will be significantly easier to start businesses without raising large amounts of capital.
Part of a coordinated AI-optimism campaign launched the same month he told staff agents were behind schedule.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of Italia Viva; former Prime Minister of Italy
Restore Italy's geopolitical relevance
Replace Meloni's balancing act with authoritative diplomacy that keeps Italy at European crisis tables.
declared 2026-07-28
What they said they would do
2026-07-28InterviewItaly could play an important role building on its diplomatic tradition — but to be heard we need an authoritative and consistent foreign policy, not just commenting on events as they unfold.
Renzi on Middle East crisis and Italy's missed diplomatic leverage.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of Ukraine
Co-produce Patriot interceptors in Ukraine
Domestic production of the war's most valuable defensive weapon — agreed with Trump in July 2026.
declared 2026-07-28
What they said they would do
2026-07-28ActionHeld a "good meeting" with Trump at the White House: agreement on producing Patriot air-defense interceptors in Ukraine and a push to revive peace talks with Russia.
Seventeen months after being ejected from the same room. The once-frosty relationship has warmed sharply.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, OpenAI
Win federal sign-off for OpenAI's most powerful model
Previewed the model at the White House in late July 2026, seeking speedy approval under the administration's AI review process.
declared 2026-07-26
What they said they would do
2026-07-26ActionTraveled to Washington to preview OpenAI's most powerful model yet for the White House, seeking speedy federal approval — the same internal model that had autonomously hacked a company and cracked the 80-year-old Erdos unit distance problem.
OpenAI had already adjusted GPT-5.6 after what Altman called a "collaborative back and forth" with Trump administration officials earlier in July.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase
De-risk before the crack
Avoiding stocks and long bonds "at these prices" — positioning for the moment as-good-as-it-gets stops getting better.
declared 2026-07-25
What they said they would do
2026-07-25InterviewMarkets are "close to as good as it gets" — he would avoid stocks and long-dated Treasurys at today's prices.
A polite way of calling the top, delivered while the AI rally ground higher.
The banker of record saying he wouldn't buy — finance X argued about nothing else for a day.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, The Tucker Carlson Show
Kill the US-Israel 'merger' in the FY2027 defense bill
Rally his audience against the Section 219/224 US-Israel defense-integration provisions of the FY2027 NDAA and make voting for them politically toxic on the right — up to demanding 'treason trials' for supporters.
declared 2026-07-25
What they said they would do
2026-07-25InterviewSo the idea that the Republican Party would support a merger of U.S. and Israeli intelligence IDF and Pentagon is so deranged that you have to root for treason trials, for Nuremberg trials at some point.
On the East Meets West podcast, attacking the US-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative (Section 219/224 of the FY2027 NDAA), which he also called 'a generational disaster'; dated per the July 25, 2026 article.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of Azione; Senator of the Italian Republic
Build a pro-European pro-Ukraine centre
Recruit reformist forces who put Ukraine and European values ahead of campo largo or centrodestra ambiguities.
declared 2026-07-23
What they said they would do
2026-07-23SpeechWhen it comes to Ukraine it is not a matter of finding a lexical compromise but of choosing which side to take — we look forward to welcoming you to the pro-European, reformist, pro-Ukraine centre when values come before electoral coalitions.
Response to PD leader Schlein's Il Foglio interview on broad-coalition unity.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of Alberta
Keep energy off Canada's retaliation list
Prevent Ottawa and other premiers from threatening oil, gas, or electricity cutoffs that Smith says would invite U.S. counters and hurt Canadians.
declared 2026-07-23
What they said they would do
2026-07-23InterviewI would say you don't go into a discussion saying you're going to punch somebody in the nose if they don't give you what you want.
Same Charlottetown cycle; Smith rejected energy-as-leverage rhetoric while arguing for a win-win negotiation frame.
Became a shorthand contrast with Doug Ford's call to make the U.S. 'feel the pain'.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Prime Minister of Canada
Secure mutually beneficial US trade agreement
Intensify negotiations for a comprehensive deal that works for Canadians before or despite threatened 50% tariffs, without previewing every countermeasure.
declared 2026-07-23
What they said they would do
2026-07-23SpeechEverything's on the table
After meeting Canada's premiers in Charlottetown ahead of Trump's threatened 50% tariffs scheduled for Aug. 19; Carney said Canada was intensifying US talks but prepared to respond.
The phrase became a foil when Carney later downplayed energy-export leverage.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, Google & Alphabet
Make Gemini the default intelligence layer
A billion monthly users is the milestone; being the substrate of search, work and devices is the ambition.
declared 2026-07-23
What they said they would do
2026-07-23InterviewDismissed "Google is losing the AI race" talk, saying Gemini 4 "will silence critics" — with Gemini at roughly 950 million monthly users and a quarter of global AI traffic.
TIME had just credited him with pushing Google "to the front of the AI race"; critics still call the cadence too slow.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of Alberta
Reach CUSMA deal before Aug. 19 tariffs
Use the 27–29 day window to intensify talks and preserve tariff-free Canada–U.S. trade under CUSMA.
declared 2026-07-21
What they said they would do
2026-07-21SpeechWe're going to have a pretty intense period over the next 29 days, and I hope that diplomacy will prevail and the best interests of both our countries will prevail and will emerge with a signed CUSMA agreement that continues to keep a tariff-free relationship between Canada and the U.S.
Comments after Council of the Federation meetings as Trump threatened new 50% tariffs effective Aug. 19, 2026.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of Ontario
Force a Team Canada retaliation plan before Aug. 19
Get Carney and fellow premiers to unite behind tariff-to-tariff measures if intensified talks fail.
declared 2026-07-21
What they said they would do
2026-07-21SpeechWe can't back down. We need a full Team Canada approach. Everything is on the table, but Ontario can't do it alone. We need the support.
Entering premiers' meetings in Charlottetown after Trump announced plans for new tariffs under Section 338.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of Ontario
Hold U.S. alcohol ban until tariffs lift
Keep American products off LCBO shelves as negotiating leverage until a satisfactory trade outcome.
declared 2026-07-21
What they said they would do
2026-07-21SpeechIf he continues to constantly bully us, we can't keep rolling over. We can't keep backing down. We have to go full tilt. We are an energy powerhouse. We have to utilize every tool we have in the toolbox and make sure he feels the pain.
Media availability in P.E.I. during Council of the Federation meetings after Trump's new 50% tariff threat; Ford also refused to lift the LCBO ban on U.S. booze.
Ford's 'can't keep rolling over' line became the slogan for premiers demanding harder retaliation.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of Ontario
Keep energy and potash on the retaliation table
Persuade other provinces that electricity, oil and potash should remain available tools so the U.S. feels reciprocal pain.
declared 2026-07-21
What they said they would do
2026-07-21SpeechNo matter if it's the electricity — and I'm not speaking for the other provinces, I'm going to be very clear — the potash, the oil … they need to feel the pain.
Charlottetown first-ministers coverage on Ford again floating oil and potash leverage, renewing Alberta–Saskatchewan anger.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
US Secretary of War
Win the Iran campaign — and the $87B to fund it
The war's costs and authorities are both contested; his job depends on delivering the first and ignoring the second.
declared 2026-07-21
What they said they would do
2026-07-21SpeechWarned that not giving the department $1.5 trillion would be "the greatest threat" the United States faces, defending the Iran war's mounting price tag before the Senate.
Lawmakers in both parties said his conflicting statements were draining their patience.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Footballer; captain, France national team
Win trophy with Les Bleus
Open letter commits to continuing national team journey after 2026 disappointment.
declared 2026-07-20
What they said they would do
2026-07-20StatementMy story with the French national team is not over — it continues with pride and determination.
Same open letter carried by major French newspapers.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Footballer; captain, France national team
Redeem fourth-place finish
Apologise to fans and take responsibility for missed trophy.
declared 2026-07-20
What they said they would do
2026-07-20StatementWe owed you a better ending — I did not bring home the trophy and I am sorry.
Open letter after France's fourth-place World Cup 2026 finish.
Letter published across French front pages dominated post-tournament media cycle.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Minister of Defense
Put nuclear deterrence into Japan's security debate
Get the role of nuclear weapons discussed openly as the government rewrites its three key defense and security documents, which analysts read as opening the door to reviewing the three non-nuclear principles.
declared 2026-07-19
What they said they would do
2026-07-19InterviewWhile this is a difficult issue for Japan to discuss, one topic we cannot avoid is nuclear weapons.
Recorded for an online news program ahead of a trip to Europe and reported on 19 July 2026; a rare instance of a sitting cabinet member broaching nuclear weapons, made as the government weighs revising its security documents and possibly the three non-nuclear principles, and citing France and Finland as countries strengthening nuclear deterrence.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder, Craft Ventures; former White House AI & Crypto Czar
One federal pro-innovation AI rulebook
Kill the state-by-state AI regulatory 'frenzy' and any pre-approval regime, locking in Trump's pro-innovation, pro-energy, pro-export approach so the US wins the AI race.
declared 2026-07-17
What they said they would do
2026-07-17Social postI believe the U.S will win the AI race if we stick with President Trump's pro-innovation, pro-infrastructure, pro-energy and pro-export vision. The danger is in abandoning that approach in favor of bureaucratic controls fueled by hysteria, fear, and companies seeking regulatory capture.
Posted after China's open-weights Kimi K3 model beat frontier American systems on coding leaderboards; date is the Axios article date.
Reignited the open-source fight inside the Trump coalition as administration hawks weighed restrictions on Chinese models; Fast Company said Kimi K3 was 'exposing cracks in Trump's AI coalition.'
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder & CEO, NVIDIA
An AI factory for every nation
Frames national AI infrastructure — "sovereign AI" — as inevitable, with NVIDIA as its supplier; the July 2026 Japan agreements are the template.
declared 2026-07-16
What they said they would do
2026-07-16ActionSpent two days in Tokyo courting Japan's industrial and chip-supply elite, leaving with agreements spanning a national AI factory, partnerships with leading robotics companies, and deals with chip-material suppliers.
Part of his global "sovereign AI" push: every nation, in his telling, needs its own AI infrastructure — built on NVIDIA.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
US Secretary of Health and Human Services
Establish an official cause of autism — with vaccines kept on the suspect list
Pushed a $5 billion NIH plan to investigate a vaccine-autism link (abandoned after internal pushback) and directed CDC web language to cast doubt on the scientific consensus that vaccines don't cause autism.
declared 2026-07-16
What they said they would do
2026-07-16ActionPressed a plan for the NIH to spend $5 billion investigating a vaccine-autism link (dropped after NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya objected), wound down mRNA vaccine development, pulled US funding from international vaccine alliances, and had CDC web pages rewritten to cast doubt on vaccine-autism safety conclusions.
Findings of a July 2026 investigative report on his push to dismantle decades of US vaccine policy; date is the article's publication date.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Minister of Defense
Rebuild the Defense Ministry for alliance diplomacy
Ease defense-equipment export rules, stand up the new Pacific Defense Planning Office to review Self-Defense Forces posture in the Pacific, and create a new international-cooperation bureau to handle equipment transfers and cross-servicing agreements with partner militaries.
declared 2026-07-15
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder & General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz
Embed techno-optimism in the American state
Fed advisory, Defense Policy Board, White House access: the manifesto as staffing plan.
declared 2026-07-09
What they said they would do
2026-07-09ActionEnlisted by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to advise the central bank on how AI will reshape the economy.
The manifesto author now briefs the institution his manifesto would have flamed.
A VC advising the Fed on the technology his fund is long — the conflict-of-interest discourse wrote itself.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and outgoing leader, Reiwa Shinsengumi
Leave electoral politics for good and recover his health
Step down as Reiwa Shinsengumi leader at the July 31, 2026 leadership election, hand the renamed party to a successor, and never stand for the Diet again — a decision he attributes to both the speeding conviction and the blood-cancer finding that had already ended his Upper House term in January 2026.
declared 2026-07-09
What they said they would do
2026-07-09SpeechTaro Yamamoto will resign as leader of Reiwa Shinsengumi. The reason is not only the speeding violation. It also involves my own health issues. ... I will never again become a member of the National Diet.
At a Tokyo news conference, after it emerged that he had accepted a summary order in April 2026 — a 90,000-yen fine and a 90-day licence suspension — for driving a rental car at 149 km/h in an 80 km/h zone on the Higashi-Kyushu Expressway in Oita on October 9, 2025. He had already left the House of Councillors in January 2026 after a checkup put him a stage short of multiple myeloma. The party set a leadership election for July 31, 2026 and said it would change its name. Article dated July 10, 2026, reporting the July 9 announcement.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, National Rally (Rassemblement National)
Install Bardella as prime minister
Name Bardella PM in first far-right government since Fifth Republic founding.
declared 2026-07-08
What they said they would do
2026-07-08InterviewIf elected president, Jordan Bardella will be my prime minister — that is decided.
Bold gambit naming Bardella PM ahead of 2027 campaign launch.
The Bardella PM pledge signalled a generational handover within the RN leadership.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader, Japan Innovation Party; Governor of Osaka
Enact the 10% cut to Lower House seats
Deliver the coalition condition he called the central pillar of reform — cutting the Lower House from 465 seats to about 420 by removing roughly 25 constituency and 20 proportional seats — after Takaichi postponed the bill in July 2026 under an opposition boycott.
declared 2026-07-07
What they said they would do
2026-07-07SpeechI believe cutting the number of lawmakers is the central pillar of reform, and it is something we must see through. At this point, of course, they are not something we will withdraw.
After meeting Takaichi during a Diet stalemate in which every opposition party boycotted deliberations and demanded the ruling bloc drop both the seat-reduction and second-capital bills; the seat-cut bill was later postponed to a future session.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder & CEO, Palantir
Break the frontier labs' pricing power
The open-weight alliance with NVIDIA plus the "tokens that create no value" campaign: commoditize the model layer, sell the ontology on top.
declared 2026-06-29
What they said they would do
2026-06-29ActionAnnounced an open-weight model partnership with NVIDIA — aligning Palantir with the open-model camp days before he attacked the closed frontier labs on television.
Aligned him with Jensen Huang's open-weight coalition against OpenAI and Anthropic.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder & CEO, Pershing Square
Ride the AI capex winners
Amazon and Microsoft as Pershing's core: buy the builders while the market mistakes investment for waste.
declared 2026-06-25
What they said they would do
2026-06-25ActionBuilt Amazon into Pershing Square's second-largest holding (~$2.4B) and added a large Microsoft stake — buying AI infrastructure leaders being "punished" for capex, companies he said were "never cheap enough" until now.
Funded partly by selling 95% of his Alphabet stake; the bull case is that AI capex is the moat, not the mistake.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former US Representative (GA-14)
Build an 'America First without Trump' platform outside the GOP
Since quitting the Republican Party she has worked the podcast circuit, teased a 'Life with MTG' online series, and positioned herself as the voice of MAGA voters who feel betrayed by both parties.
declared 2026-06-23
What they said they would do
2026-06-23Social postBut we are DONE with the America LAST Republican Party.
X post announcing she was leaving the GOP after Tucker Carlson's departure from the party; she wrote that 'Tucker is not the only one who is done supporting the Republican Party.'
A founding MAGA celebrity formally quitting Trump's party turned 'America Last' into the anti-Trump right's rallying cry.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of Italia Viva; former Prime Minister of Italy
Unite pro-European center-left for 2027
Build a reformist coalition with a clear European compass excluding pro-Russian voices.
declared 2026-06-20
What they said they would do
2026-06-20InterviewAt this point, Giorgia Meloni can only be saved if the centre-left splits. A united center-left wins, a divided center-left loses.
Interview with La Stampa arguing Meloni's survival depends on progressive fragmentation.
Renzi's line that Meloni is saved only by a centre-left split dominated Italian opposition debate.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Prime Minister of Italy
Implement EU return reform via Italian model
Use new EP-approved return rules and third-country hub provisions to quickly repatriate migrants without legal status.
declared 2026-06-17
What they said they would do
2026-06-17Social postToday, Italy has achieved a major success in Europe. The regulation follows the path pioneered by the Italian government with the protocol with Albania, an innovative solution that the Left attempted to oppose at all costs.
Video message from the G7 summit in Evian after EP final approval of the repatriation regulation.
Meloni cast Albania return hubs as an Italian invention now adopted continent-wide.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader, Sanseito
Legislate a cap on foreign nationals
Pass a statutory ceiling on how many foreign nationals may come and live in Japan, and create a single agency with comprehensive authority over foreign-national policy — pressuring the Takaichi government from the right rather than joining it.
declared 2026-06-17
What they said they would do
2026-06-17ActionWe need stronger and clearer policies.
Said to reporters after Sanseito submitted an upper house bill to create a single agency handling all policy on foreign nationals; he called the Takaichi government's policies on foreign nationals extremely insufficient and argued Japan should cap the number of foreign nationals allowed to come and live in the country.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Secretary, Democratic Party (PD)
Win next elections with progressive alliance
Unite PD and allied forces on wages, healthcare and rights to defeat Meloni's right-wing government.
declared 2026-06-14
What they said they would do
2026-06-14InterviewToday we can say that there is a competitive progressive alliance, capable of defeating Meloni in the next elections. We have already built it in many cities where we have won together.
Interview with Marc López Plana at PD headquarters in Rome on rebuilding the opposition.
Schlein's alliance claim followed joint wins in regional elections and referendum mobilisation.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Member of the European Parliament; Leader of Futuro Nazionale
Implement a national remigration programme
Reduce foreign population share through CPR expansion, bilateral returns and third-country transfers.
declared 2026-06-14
What they said they would do
2026-06-14SpeechWe do not have an immigration programme — we have a re-emigration programme, reducing the foreign population from around twelve percent to approximately four percent.
Futuro Nazionale founding congress in Rome pledging numeric reduction of foreign residents.
The 12-to-4 percent target drew international attention to Vannacci's demographic agenda.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, Five Star Movement (M5S)
Shift Ukraine policy from arms to mediation
Lead a breakthrough in negotiations and stop funding military escalation that Conte calls a failed strategy.
declared 2026-06-10
What they said they would do
2026-06-10SpeechContinuing to pin hopes on military victory is madness, given the failure of recent years. A shift towards negotiation is the only possible way forward.
Remarks with M5S Youth Network activists outside the European Parliament in Brussels.
Conte's 'madness' line drew rebukes from PD reformists who accused M5S of aligning with sovereigntist peace rhetoric.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Member of the European Parliament; Leader of Futuro Nazionale
Build Futuro Nazionale as authentic right alternative
Challenge Meloni and Salvini from the nationalist right with a party rejecting Ukraine arms and LGBTQ civil-rights expansion.
declared 2026-06-10
What they said they would do
2026-06-10InterviewI define myself as authentically right — Meloni's is a right that has lost its bearings; Vannacci is the sextant that brings the ship back on course.
Live TV break with Salvini and Meloni positioning Futuro Nazionale as the true nationalist standard-bearer.
The 'sextant' metaphor became a shorthand for Vannacci's claim to redirect the Italian right.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and leader, La France Insoumise
Raise Smic to €1,700
Immediate wage hike pledge at Saint-Denis launch.
declared 2026-06-09
What they said they would do
2026-06-09SpeechVictory is possible — a great change is within reach of our hand. We will raise the Smic to 1,700 euros and build the Sixth Republic.
Saint-Denis campaign rally launching 2027 presidential bid.
The 'victory is possible' refrain became Mélenchon's 2026 rally chant after years of near-misses.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Prime Minister of Israel
Win the September 2026 election
Everything — the ceasefire's redefinition, the trial calendar, the Iran posture — is read through this date.
declared 2026-05-25
What they said they would do
2026-05-25ActionOrdered the army to take control of 70% of the Gaza Strip in defiance of the October ceasefire's terms, as analysts accused him of stalling the peace process ahead of September elections.
Seven months after the ceasefire took effect, its terms were being redefined in real time.
The order turned "what ceasefire?" into a global argument conducted largely in quote-tweets.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Writer and journalist; author of Gomorrah
Map global resistance to power in Shout It Out
US edition book tour framing writers and dissidents who challenged censorship.
declared 2026-05-24
What they said they would do
2026-05-24InterviewFreedom is not something we possess naturally — it is never guaranteed once and for all. We recognize its value only when it begins to disappear, like oxygen.
US book tour interview for Shout It Out on fear and freedom under protection.
Freedom-not-given-once headline resonated in US free-speech debates.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former US Director of National Intelligence
Step away to support her husband's cancer fight
Left the DNI post effective June 30, 2026 to be at the side of husband Abraham Williams after his rare bone cancer diagnosis.
declared 2026-05-22
What they said they would do
2026-05-22Open letterAt this time, I must step away from public service to be by his side and fully support him through this battle.
Resignation letter to Trump, effective June 30, 2026, citing husband Abraham Williams' rare bone cancer; it landed a day before CNN reported she had been sidelined on Iran and Venezuela and was 'on thin ice.'
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader, Team Mirai
Give Japan a state that can inspect frontier AI itself
Equip Japan's AI Safety Institute with the technical capability to evaluate individual frontier models, extend the security clearance regime to its staff so foreign developers will grant pre-release access, and host high-capability models domestically for government security testing.
declared 2026-05-19
What they said they would do
2026-05-19SpeechIt is extremely important that Japan's AI Safety Institute itself possess the technical capability to evaluate individual models.
Questioning ministers in the House of Councillors Committee on Internal Affairs and Communications, Anno argued that frontier AI developers grant pre-release access only to governments with credible evaluation capacity — citing the UK's AI Safety Institute — said 'institutional guarantees of trust are needed', and proposed extending Japan's security clearance system to institute staff handling frontier model information. Translated from the Japanese original.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Reconquête; media polemicist
Abolish binationality
End dual citizenship to enforce single national loyalty.
declared 2026-05-19
What they said they would do
2026-05-19InterviewWe must stop legal immigration entirely — binationality is an error that prevents assimilation.
CNews segment comparing Reconquête and RN immigration positions.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and leader, La France Insoumise
Found the Sixth Republic
Constitutional citizen revolution dismantling Fifth Republic presidential system.
declared 2026-05-15
What they said they would do
2026-05-15VideoThe Sixth Republic is not reform — it is a citizen revolution that dismantles the monarchical presidency.
May 2026 letter to supporters on constitutional change programme.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Federal Reserve Governor; Chair, 2018–2026
Outlast the investigation
Stay on the Fed board until the renovation investigation is 'well and truly over, with transparency and finality' — with the DOJ probe dropped but the Fed Inspector General's review and possible appeals still pending.
declared 2026-04-29
What they said they would do
2026-04-29InterviewI have said that I will not leave the Board until this investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality, and I stand by that. ... The things that have happened, really, in the last three months have, I think, left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long.
Explaining why he will stay on as a rank-and-fed governor after his chair term ends — his underlying governor term runs to January 2028, and staying denies Trump an open board seat; he said he 'had long planned to be retiring.'
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Federal Reserve Governor; Chair, 2018–2026
Low profile, no 'shadow chair'
Return to rank-and-file governor without undercutting Kevin Warsh — 'there is only ever one Chair of the Federal Reserve Board,' and playing shadow chair is 'just something I would never do.'
declared 2026-04-29
What they said they would do
2026-04-29SpeechThese legal actions by the Administration are unprecedented in our 113-year history, and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions. I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public—which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.
His final press conference as chair before handing over to Kevin Warsh on May 15; he stressed the problem was legal attacks, not verbal criticism, and vowed he would never act as a 'shadow Chair.'
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chairman and CEO, LVMH
Plan LVMH succession within 7-8 years
Gradual leadership transition while maintaining family control.
declared 2026-04-23
What they said they would do
2026-04-23InterviewTalk of retirement? Perhaps in seven or eight years — I still have work to do at LVMH.
Annual results press briefing on succession timeline.
Seven-to-eight-year horizon sparked succession speculation among five Arnault children.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chairman and CEO, LVMH
Return LVMH to growth post-crisis
Navigate Middle East geopolitical risk to restore revenue trajectory.
declared 2026-04-23
What they said they would do
2026-04-23InterviewReturn to growth hinges on the outcome of the Middle East crisis — luxury is sensitive to geopolitical stability.
Reuters interview linking LVMH outlook to regional conflict.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, The Tucker Carlson Show
Rebuild the right as anti-interventionist America First — without Trump
Having apologized for 'misleading' voters into backing Trump, position himself as the arbiter of a post-Trump nationalist right purged of 'neocons' and donor-driven foreign policy.
declared 2026-04-20
What they said they would do
2026-04-20InterviewI want to say I'm sorry for misleading people, and it was not intentional... We'll be tormented by it for a long time.
On a Monday episode of The Tucker Carlson Show with his brother Buckley Carlson, a former Trump speechwriter (episode aired week of April 21, 2026 per press coverage), apologizing for helping elect Trump.
Trump's most valuable 2024 media ally publicly repenting for the endorsement dominated a news cycle and supercharged 'Tucker 2028' chatter.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Writer and journalist; author of Gomorrah
Defend free expression against lawsuit intimidation
Continue fighting Meloni-era defamation cases while urging repeal of criminal defamation.
declared 2026-04-17
What they said they would do
2019-03-20SpeechMinistro della Mala Vita — Minister of the Underworld — accusing Salvini of ignoring the mafia stranglehold on Italy in favour of stirring up resentment against immigrants.
2019 speech quoted in PEN report on 2026 acquittal of defamation charges against Salvini.
Salvini trial clearance after years of proceedings drew international press-freedom attention.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Deputy Prime Minister; Leader of the League
Mobilise Patriots demonstration for border policy
Lead League supporters in Milan rally demanding tougher enforcement and rejection of judicial releases.
declared 2026-04-16
What they said they would do
2026-04-16InterviewDefending borders is not a crime, it's a public administrator's duty. This is also why we'll be in the streets on Saturday for the Patriots' demonstration.
Telephone interview with 7Gold's Aria Pulita on migration enforcement and judicial releases.
Salvini linked border defence to a Milan rally titled 'Without Fear — In Europe, We're Masters in Our Own House'.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Actress
Keep the commercial empire compounding
Extend the endorsement machine that the controversy supercharged — the American Eagle sequel, viral product drops, her own lingerie line — with charity tie-ins softening the edges.
declared 2026-04-15
What they said they would do
2026-04-15ActionReturned as the face of American Eagle with 'Syd for Short,' a jean-shorts sequel campaign that winks 'What brand am I wearing? Yeah, that one' and sends all profits from two styles to Crisis Text Line.
Nine months after the 'great jeans' firestorm she re-upped with the brand rather than distancing herself; coverage framed it as doubling down.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase
Keep JPMorgan the fortress when the plates shift
The letter's logic: assume wars, deficits and dislocation, and be the bank still standing — and buying — afterward.
declared 2026-04-07
What they said they would do
2026-04-07PublicationWarned shareholders of risks "shifting below the surface like tectonic plates" — wars, deficits, elevated asset prices — and that AI may displace workers faster than the economy creates new roles.
His annual letter is read as a shadow State of the Union for the economy.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, ESPN First Take
Push the Democratic Party away from identity politics
Uses his platforms to demand the party abandon its 'progressive tilt' on culture-war issues and rebuild toward the center, saying it 'still doesn't get' why it lost in 2024.
declared 2026-04-01
What they said they would do
2026-04-01Interview(On regretting his 2024 vote for Kamala Harris) When I saw how things were unfolding and how out in the clouds the Democratic Party was even after they lost the election, I just said, 'There's no hope.' ... I don't know what the hell I was thinking about believing that you all would get it, because you still don't get it.
On The Sage Steele Show, Smith said he regretted voting for Harris and had 'lost all faith' in the Democratic Party's post-2024 direction; date is the article date.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder, Craft Ventures; former White House AI & Crypto Czar
Steer Trump tech policy from PCAST
Having hit the 130-day special-government-employee limit as czar in March 2026, he co-chairs the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology with Michael Kratsios, expanding his brief to AI, semiconductors, quantum and nuclear.
declared 2026-03-26
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, Identité-Libertés; MEP
Build EU migration restriction coalition
Leverage parliament victories for harder European border policy.
declared 2026-03-20
What they said they would do
2026-03-20Social postAn unprecedented victory in the European Parliament — the migration coalition has never been stronger.
LinkedIn post celebrating EU parliament migration policy vote.
EU coalition victory post signalled Identité-Libertés institutional influence beyond France.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder, Founders Fund; Chairman, Palantir
Reframe global AI regulation as civilizational danger
The Antichrist lectures are a philosophical campaign to make "one-world safetyism," not AI itself, the thing the West fears.
declared 2026-03-13
What they said they would do
2026-03-13SpeechDelivered four lectures on the Antichrist at the Vatican's doorstep — arguing the Antichrist may arrive not as a person but as a one-world regulatory order exploiting fears of AI, climate change and nuclear war.
Catholic universities initially linked to the series denied involvement; the lectures repeated sold-out San Francisco sessions from 2025.
Antichrist lectures at the Vatican's doorstep produced a week of theological X discourse.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, National Rally (Rassemblement National)
Win 2027 presidential election
Run despite conviction and tag; pursue all legal avenues to clear path to Élysée.
declared 2026-03-12
What they said they would do
2026-03-12InterviewI am the candidate for 2027 — I will pursue every legal avenue available and there is no scenario in which I am not running.
Interview affirming 2027 presidential candidacy despite legal troubles.
Le Pen's 'no scenario' line became a rallying cry for supporters who see convictions as political.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chef and food campaigner
Achieve universal free school meals in England
Making School Meals Matter campaign targeting Labour government.
declared 2026-03-10
What they said they would do
2026-03-10SpeechEvery child deserves a proper school meal — not a privilege for some but a right for all.
Making School Meals Matter campaign launch.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of Reform UK
Establish ICE-style UK deportation agency
Dedicated enforcement body modelled on US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
declared 2026-02-23
What they said they would do
2026-02-23ActionReform UK promised an ICE-style deportation agency to halt migrant arrivals.
February 2026 policy rollout modelling US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Explicit US ICE comparison drew transatlantic attention.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Prime Minister of Japan
Put a constitutional amendment to a national referendum
Get a cross-party Diet proposal out of both chambers and win Japan's first-ever constitutional referendum, clarifying the legal status of the Self-Defense Forces under Article 9. No amendment has ever been proposed, let alone passed, since the constitution took effect in 1947.
declared 2026-02-20
What they said they would do
2026-02-20SpeechRegarding constitutional reform, I have great hopes that constructive discussions transcending political parties and factions will gather momentum, leading to the release of a Diet proposal at an early time.
From her policy speech to the 221st session of the Diet, her first after the landslide; the same speech promised to 'bring forward the revision of the Three Strategic Documents within this year' and to deepen discussion of 'stable Imperial succession' via the Imperial House Law.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Prime Minister of Japan
Lock in 2%-of-GDP defense spending and rewrite the three strategic documents
Hold defense-related spending at 2% of GDP — a target she pulled forward from fiscal 2027 to the year ending March 2026 — and finish an early revision of the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program within 2026, including reorganizing the Air Self-Defense Force into an Air and Space Self-Defense Force.
declared 2026-02-20
What they said they would do
2026-02-20SpeechRegarding constitutional reform, I have great hopes that constructive discussions transcending political parties and factions will gather momentum, leading to the release of a Diet proposal at an early time.
From her policy speech to the 221st session of the Diet, her first after the landslide; the same speech promised to 'bring forward the revision of the Three Strategic Documents within this year' and to deepen discussion of 'stable Imperial succession' via the Imperial House Law.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Olympic freestyle skier; model
Inspire young women in China through sport
Stated mission since age 10 for choosing Team China.
declared 2026-02-19
What they said they would do
2026-02-19InterviewShe did it to increase visibility and bring more girls into a sport that wasn't as developed in China as it is in the United States.
CNN summarizing Gu's stated reasons for choosing China.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs; Foreign Minister
Enforce the Taiwan red line in diplomacy
Use major European forums to punish allies who normalize Taiwan contingencies.
declared 2026-02-14
What they said they would do
2026-02-14SpeechCould China possibly accept this provocation? No way. No Chinese can accept it.
Munich Security Conference Q&A on Japanese PM Takaichi's Taiwan remarks.
Clip raced across Asian social media as the sharpest China-Japan exchange since the 2012 islands crisis.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs; Foreign Minister
Position China as Asia's stability anchor
Narrative of regional peace under Chinese mediation vs Western militarization.
declared 2026-02-14
What they said they would do
2026-02-14SpeechI don't think that the situation in Asia Pacific is getting increasingly tense. In today's world, Asia is probably the only region that maintains overall peace.
Opening answer at MSC before pivoting to Japan-Taiwan criticism.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of Azione; Senator of the Italian Republic
Campaign for a federated armed Europe
2027 platform for federal defence integration and a European nuclear energy plan.
declared 2026-02-12
What they said they would do
2026-02-12InterviewWe will be the party asking for a federal Europe, armed with a European nuclear plan — the only energy that makes us truly independent.
2027 electoral pitch for a federated, rearmed European power.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Content creator; founder, Léna Éditions
Remain creator not product
Master 360-degree craft while resisting brand commodification.
declared 2026-02-10
What they said they would do
2026-02-10InterviewI refuse to become a product — my mission is to share the light and master every dimension of my craft.
Vogue interview on publishing house and new book Encore mieux.
Not a product line resonated with creator-economy audience tired of brand deals.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader, Japan Innovation Party; Governor of Osaka
Win a third Osaka metropolis referendum
Convert his 83.2% re-election into a third citywide vote on abolishing Osaka city and merging its 24 wards into Tokyo-style special wards — the party's founding project, defeated in 2015 and 2020 and now backed by a national second-capital law.
declared 2026-02-08
What they said they would do
2026-02-08ActionResigned as governor in January 2026 to trigger a snap gubernatorial election on the same day as Takaichi's snap general election, explicitly to win a mandate for a third referendum on merging Osaka city's wards — and was re-elected to a third term with 83.2% of the vote, beating two independents who opposed the merger.
Osaka Mayor Hideyuki Yokoyama resigned and won re-election alongside him; the double-election gamble had drawn objections from Ishin's own Osaka city assembly members and from veteran Diet members.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of Ukraine
A just peace with security guarantees
Not any deal — one that survives Putin's next decade. Talks resumed in 2026 with US envoys shuttling; the guarantee question remains the war's hardest problem.
declared 2026-02-08
What they said they would do
2026-02-08InterviewSaid Washington wanted a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement concluded by June — signaling Kyiv would engage with the timetable while insisting on security guarantees.
The deadline slipped, but talks continued through envoys into the summer.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, Identité-Libertés; MEP
Stop Islamification on ancestral land
Mobilise against mosque construction and demographic change narratives.
declared 2026-02-05
What they said they would do
2026-02-05SpeechOnce Islam is in the majority on the land of your ancestors, it is too late — that is why we stand at this mosque site today.
Protest at Strasbourg mosque construction site.
Strasbourg mosque speech drew condemnation and counter-protests nationwide.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Bridgewater Associates
Position for the breakdown of the old order
Gold, hard assets, cross-system diversification — the capital-war portfolio.
declared 2026-02-04
What they said they would do
2026-02-04InterviewWarned of a coming global "capital war": as the US-China order breaks down, holding assets in the wrong country becomes a geopolitical risk, not just a financial one.
His prescription, as ever: gold, hard assets, and diversification across systems.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Actress
Be defined by the work, not the discourse
Anchor an A-list film career (Euphoria, The Housemaid) and be discussed as an actress and producer rather than as a culture-war symbol — 'I've always been here to make art.'
declared 2026-01-30
What they said they would do
2026-01-30InterviewI've never been here to talk about politics. I've always been here to make art, so this is just not a conversation I want to be at the forefront of.
Cosmopolitan cover interview on the 'MAGA Barbie' label, in which she also said 'it's not me. None of it is me' and answered a flat 'No' to ever confirming her political beliefs.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Actress
Never put her politics on the record
Asked whether she would ever confirm her political beliefs, she answered 'No' — keeping her registration unexplained and her ballot private, indefinitely.
declared 2026-01-30
What they said they would do
2026-01-30InterviewI've never been here to talk about politics. I've always been here to make art, so this is just not a conversation I want to be at the forefront of.
Cosmopolitan cover interview on the 'MAGA Barbie' label, in which she also said 'it's not me. None of it is me' and answered a flat 'No' to ever confirming her political beliefs.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader, Democratic Party for the People
Raise the residential-tax deduction to 1.78 million yen in 2026
Having won a two-year, income-capped hike in the income-tax threshold, he wants the same 1.78 million yen figure applied to the residential tax deduction — roughly a 600,000 yen increase worth about 60,000 yen a year to a taxpayer, at a claimed cost of a little over 3 trillion yen.
declared 2026-01-27
What they said they would do
2026-01-27SpeechBecause we increased our seats in the 2024 lower house election and the 2025 upper house election and a minority-government situation was created, the gasoline price cut that could not be done for 50 years and the raising of the "income wall" that could not be done for 30 years were achieved. Politics and policy have begun to move. Please do not stop this new political current. We will raise the residential tax deduction toward 1.78 million yen and push policies that will reliably increase take-home pay within this year. We are an opposition party that delivers policy. We will dig deeper into what we have steadily done, and increase take-home pay even more.
His opening campaign speech at JR Shimbashi Station on the first official day of the February 8, 2026 general election, in which the DPP finished with 28 seats while the LDP won 316. Translated from the Japanese original.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Prime Minister of Italy
Reconfigure Board of Peace for Italian participation
Ask Trump to reopen the Board's governance so Italy and other European states can join without breaching constitutional rules.
declared 2026-01-23
What they said they would do
2026-01-23SpeechThere are objective constitutional problems for us with the way the initiative is configured. I asked for his willingness to reopen this configuration to meet the needs not only of Italy, but also of other European countries.
Meloni explained why Italy cannot yet join Trump's Board of Peace despite interest in participating.
Constitutional limits on joining a body chaired by a single foreign leader became a talking point across Europe.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, ByteDance
Preserve TikTok's global creator economy
Interoperability and TT Commerce subsidiaries to link US users to worldwide audience.
declared 2026-01-23
What they said they would do
2026-01-23PublicationInteroperability will be critical in enabling users and creators to have the same global experience that they know and love, and for the 7.5 million US businesses to continue to thrive on TikTok by reaching customers around the world.
Chew on why ByteDance kept global product lines separate from the USDS joint venture.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of the French Republic
Make Europe an AI and defence investment leader
Davos and AI Summit agenda to fund AI, quantum, cleantech and defence as sovereignty pillars.
declared 2026-01-21
What they said they would do
2026-01-21SpeechWe must invest more in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cleantech and defence — these are the pillars of European sovereignty.
Davos 2026 special address on European industrial and tech strategy.
Davos line linked Macron's sovereignty agenda to AI and defence spending in one breath.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Federal Reserve Governor; Chair, 2018–2026
Hand over an un-politicized Fed
Cement an independent central bank as his legacy — an institution that sets rates 'based on evidence and economic conditions' and outlasts any one president's pressure campaign.
declared 2026-01-11
What they said they would do
2026-01-11SpeechThe threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. ... This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.
Rare Sunday-evening video statement disclosing DOJ grand jury subpoenas over his renovation testimony; Judge Boasberg later quashed the subpoenas as a 'pretext' and the DOJ dropped the probe on April 24, 2026.
A Fed chair announcing his own threatened indictment in a Sunday-night video was without precedent in the institution's history and dominated global financial news for days.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
US Secretary of Health and Human Services
Permanently replace the US childhood vaccine schedule with a Denmark-style minimum
Entrench the January 2026 cut from 17 universally recommended diseases to 11 and a remade ACIP, now fighting a March 2026 federal injunction that reverted the schedule to its May 2025 version.
declared 2026-01-05
What they said they would do
2026-01-05ActionCut the CDC childhood immunization schedule from 17 universally recommended vaccine-preventable diseases to 11, moving rotavirus, influenza, hepatitis A, hepatitis B and meningococcal shots to 'shared clinical decision-making' to mirror Denmark's leaner schedule.
Justified with a 33-page HHS assessment comparing the US schedule to Denmark's; on March 16, 2026 a federal judge stayed the new schedule and invalidated the votes of his hand-picked ACIP panel.
The most sweeping rollback of US vaccine policy in decades — condemned by the American Academy of Pediatrics, which sued and won an injunction.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Artist and activist
Expose censorship through art and publishing
'On Censorship' and installation work as ongoing project.
declared 2026-01-01
What they said they would do
2026-01-01InterviewMy reaction to censorship, it's very simple. It's just reveal the truth. Reveal the details.
Core method from 'On Censorship' book tour.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader, Sanseito
Replace the postwar constitution
Discard the 1947 constitution rather than amend it, and rewrite it to give Japan independent defense capability, preemptive strike capability and nuclear deterrence.
declared 2025-12-10
What they said they would do
2025-12-10InterviewArgued that Japan's constitution should not merely be amended but replaced outright, that Japan must build independent defense capabilities and maintain nuclear deterrence, and that Sanseito aimed to win 30 lower house seats to gain parliamentary leverage.
Profile interview in which he also called for cutting the national burden rate from 46% to 35%, stricter naturalization rules, regulation of foreign purchases of land and water resources, and said he agreed with roughly 40% of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies against 10% of her predecessor's.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, National Rally; Member of the European Parliament
Hold immigration referendum
Put border and citizenship reforms to direct popular vote.
declared 2025-12-09
What they said they would do
2025-12-09InterviewWe will hold a referendum on immigration and restore our borders — France must become the least attractive country for illegal immigration.
Joint interview with Nigel Farage on immigration and border policy.
Farage-Bardella photo op linked French and British far-right border agendas.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Novelist and essayist
Keep warning that Handmaid-style authoritarianism can happen
Argue speculative fiction's gender-authoritarian scenario is a perennial possibility growing closer, not a costume drama.
declared 2025-12-07
What they said they would do
2025-12-07InterviewNot the outfits. I don't think we're going to get the outfits, but the rest of it seems more and more plausible.
BBC Radio 4 Desert Island Discs; Atwood said after 2016 The Handmaid's Tale setting became much closer as a perennial possibility.
Global headline that Handmaid's Tale had become 'more and more plausible.'
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, Google DeepMind; Nobel laureate
Keep UK at frontier of AI research
Champion London-Cambridge corridor as global AI hub.
declared 2025-12-01
What they said they would do
2025-12-01InterviewBritain punches above its weight in AI research — King's Cross to Cambridge is a world-class corridor.
Praising UK AI ecosystem despite Google US headquarters.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and outgoing leader, Reiwa Shinsengumi
Stop constitutional revision by any means available
Prevent the Takaichi government's emergency clause and Diet-term extension from reaching a referendum, and convert the Commission on the Constitution's work into an investigation of the state's existing constitutional violations instead of groundwork for amendment.
declared 2025-11-26
What they said they would do
2025-11-26SpeechFor people who do not even uphold the constitution we already have to talk about changing it is ten thousand light years too early. Uphold the constitution we have — then we can talk. That is Reiwa Shinsengumi's position. ... To protect the people from this next fraud, this act of theft called constitutional revision, I declare that I will put my body on the line to stop it.
Speaking against the Takaichi government's push for an emergency clause and extended Diet terms; in the same speech he catalogued murder-suicides among family carers as Article 13 and Article 25 violations, and attacked the supplementary budget for quietly including the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear restart and next-generation reactor construction alongside 6.4 trillion yen for AI, semiconductors, shipbuilding and military industry. Translated from the Japanese original.
Source: Taro Yamamoto official site (House of Councillors Commission on the Constitution) ↗
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Adviser, Centrist Reform Alliance; Prime Minister 2011-2012
Force the government to stop improvising on Taiwan
Hold Takaichi to a disciplined, cabinet-agreed line on when a Taiwan contingency would engage Japanese collective self-defense, rather than letting the prime minister voice personal views in Diet questioning.
declared 2025-11-26
What they said they would do
2025-11-26SpeechAs the supreme commander of the Self-Defense Forces, there are things one must not say. Carelessly voicing personal views is reckless.
In the first party-leaders' debate of Takaichi's premiership, Noda attacked her November 7 Diet remark that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could constitute a survival-threatening situation for Japan, a comment that triggered a diplomatic crisis with Beijing; he also asked her whether it had been an act of arbitrary decision-making and whether she felt any responsibility.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Member, House of Representatives; Prime Minister 2024-2025
Rebuild Japan-China stability without slowing the defense build-up
Pull Tokyo back from declaratory hawkishness on Taiwan and restore the working relationship with Beijing he cultivated as prime minister, while continuing to argue for Asian collective defense and a stronger Japanese military.
declared 2025-11-23
What they said they would do
2025-11-23SpeechWhat we would do in a Taiwan contingency is not something to be said out in the open. This is not about having said what you wanted to say. Nor is it about it being fine so long as approval ratings go up. Successive administrations have proceeded with the utmost care -- Japan-China relations are that delicate.
Ishiba responding to Prime Minister Takaichi's Diet testimony that Chinese military action against Taiwan could constitute a 'survival-threatening situation' for Japan, during the sharpest Japan-China rupture in years. Translated from the Japanese original.
Chinese state media amplified the rebuke heavily, running repeat pieces on a Japanese ex-prime minister opposing his successor's Taiwan remarks -- which is precisely the outcome his LDP critics said proved him wrong.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former US Representative (GA-14)
Force full release of the Epstein files
Continue the transparency crusade that triggered her break with Trump, framed as justice for trafficking victims abused by 'rich powerful men.'
declared 2025-11-21
What they said they would do
2025-11-21Social postI refuse to be a 'battered wife' hoping it all goes away and gets better.
From her resignation announcement (effective January 5, 2026) after Trump withdrew his endorsement and branded her a traitor, a rupture she tied to her push to release the Epstein files.
The 'battered wife' line led coverage of the most spectacular MAGA breakup to date — Trump had just rebranded her 'Marjorie "Traitor" Brown' on Truth Social.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, Google DeepMind; Nobel laureate
Achieve AGI within five years
Public timeline bet with parallel safety investment.
declared 2025-11-15
What they said they would do
2025-11-15InterviewI think AGI is achievable within the next five years — but we need to get the safety and alignment right.
Interview on AGI timeline and safety requirements.
Five-year AGI bet drew both excitement and existential concern.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Content creator; founder, Léna Éditions
Publish young passionate creators via Léna Éditions
Build independent publishing house for overlooked voices.
declared 2025-11-10
What they said they would do
2025-11-10ArticleWith Léna Éditions I want to highlight and publish young passionate people — the voices mainstream publishing ignores.
Launch announcement for Léna Éditions imprint.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Novelist and essayist
Keep 'elbows up' Canadian resistance visible
Use cultural platforms to reject 51st-state talk and normalize defensive Canadian nationalism without militaristic panic.
declared 2025-11-09
What they said they would do
2025-11-09InterviewIt's a hockey thing. And it was this character called Gordie Howe, who is a very revered hockey player. And, 'Elbow's up,' is when somebody gets you into the corner and you block them by putting your elbow up. And it means, 'Don't mess with me.' And for those who speak of the 51st state, I do point out that it wouldn't be just one state.
60 Minutes interview with Jon Wertheim about Book of Lives and Canada–U.S. chill under Trump tariffs and 51st-state talk.
Helped mainstream 'elbows up' as the cultural slogan of Canadian pushback.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Novelist and essayist
Encourage informed Canadian purchasing amid U.S. tension
Read labels and make deliberate choices without necessarily branding the shift as a total boycott.
declared 2025-11-08
What they said they would do
2025-11-08InterviewWe've all started reading the labels, but I wouldn't call it a boycott, but rather making informed decisions.
Toronto café interview promoting her memoir; asked whether she boycotts U.S. products amid Trump attacks on Canada.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and outgoing leader, Reiwa Shinsengumi
Abolish the consumption tax and institutionalise universal cash payments
Eliminate Japan's consumption tax entirely and make flat 100,000-yen payments to every resident each season until inflation subsides, financed by government bond issuance and recovered from the wealthy afterwards through progressive taxation — the policy he built the party around and pressed on the government 45 times in a single Diet session.
declared 2025-11-06
What they said they would do
2025-11-06SpeechNo matter how far stock prices rise, it makes almost no difference to ordinary people's lives. ... And then there is the enormous military buildup riding on America's coattails plus a defense tax hike, the country-selling tariff deal with Trump, the slush funds, putting Unification Church-linked lawmakers into senior posts — none of that has public understanding either, so why on earth are you ramming it through? Meanwhile the cash payments that would rescue people from destitution are withdrawn because 'public understanding was not obtained.' Prime Minister, are you trying to kill the people? ... Not a limited payment: until price inflation subsides, a flat 100,000 yen for everyone, every season. Claw it back later from the very rich through tax. ... Where does the money come from? Government bond issuance, obviously. Cut the consumption tax with bond issuance, and the economy grows. Growth itself is the revenue source.
His formal interpellation of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at her first Diet session; Takaichi replied on the record that the seasonal 100,000-yen universal payment 'will not be implemented.' Translated from the Japanese original.
Source: Taro Yamamoto official site (House of Councillors plenary, representative question) ↗
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Governor of California
Flip the US House with Prop 50 maps
The point of the redistricting gambit: five Democratic-leaning California seats in play for the November 2026 midterms.
declared 2025-11-04
What they said they would do
2025-11-04ActionWon Proposition 50 with roughly 64% of the vote, letting California replace its independent-commission congressional map with one favoring Democrats in five districts — his answer to the Trump-backed mid-decade redistricting in Texas.
He branded the measure the "Election Rigging Response Act" and urged other Democratic-led states to follow.
Election-night maps and his all-caps victory posts owned political X.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Mayor of New York City
Make buses fast and free
The second leg of his cost-of-living agenda, declared on election night; citywide fare-free service still requires state cooperation.
declared 2025-11-04
What they said they would do
2025-11-04SpeechCentral to that vision will be the most ambitious agenda to tackle the cost of living crisis that this city has seen since the days of Fiorello LaGuardia — an agenda that will freeze the rents for more than two million rent stabilized tenants, make buses fast and free, and deliver universal child care across our city.
Election-night speech after defeating Andrew Cuomo in the mayoral race.
"Freeze the rent" chants and the victory speech flooded every feed — the left's biggest election-night moment since 2018.
Source: Victory speech, Brooklyn Paramount (via The Nation) ↗
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Mayor of New York City
Universal childcare across New York City
The long-horizon piece of his LaGuardia-scale affordability agenda.
declared 2025-11-04
What they said they would do
2025-11-04SpeechCentral to that vision will be the most ambitious agenda to tackle the cost of living crisis that this city has seen since the days of Fiorello LaGuardia — an agenda that will freeze the rents for more than two million rent stabilized tenants, make buses fast and free, and deliver universal child care across our city.
Election-night speech after defeating Andrew Cuomo in the mayoral race.
"Freeze the rent" chants and the victory speech flooded every feed — the left's biggest election-night moment since 2018.
Source: Victory speech, Brooklyn Paramount (via The Nation) ↗
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Scion Asset Management
Profit from the AI unwind
$1.1B notional against Nvidia and Palantir, a Micron short, and a public paper trail explaining exactly why.
declared 2025-11-03
What they said they would do
2025-11-03FilingScion disclosed bearish put options against Nvidia and Palantir with a combined notional value of $1.1B — and he began publishing "Cassandra Unchained," accusing AI giants of stretching depreciation schedules to inflate earnings.
His return from two years of silence, aimed squarely at the AI trade's accounting.
"Burry is back and he's short Nvidia" trended within an hour of the filing.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Scion Asset Management
Keep warning even when early
Cassandra Unchained is the project: document the excess in real time, accept the ridicule, and be owed an apology later.
declared 2025-11-03
What they said they would do
2025-11-03FilingScion disclosed bearish put options against Nvidia and Palantir with a combined notional value of $1.1B — and he began publishing "Cassandra Unchained," accusing AI giants of stretching depreciation schedules to inflate earnings.
His return from two years of silence, aimed squarely at the AI trade's accounting.
"Burry is back and he's short Nvidia" trended within an hour of the filing.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Conservative Party
Leave ECHR if required for border control
Conference pledge to override human-rights constraints on deportation.
declared 2025-10-08
What they said they would do
2025-10-08SpeechIf we need to leave the European Convention on Human Rights to control our borders, we will do it.
2025 Conservative Party conference speech on immigration enforcement.
ECHR exit pledge aimed at voters lost to Reform UK.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Musician; Super Bowl LX halftime headliner
Make Spanish unignorable in US pop culture
Take Spanish-language music to every mainstream summit — SNL, a historic Album of the Year Grammy, the Super Bowl — without translating himself: as he told SNL viewers about his halftime show, 'you have four months to learn.'
declared 2025-10-04
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Exiled pro-democracy activist; former legislator
Continue international advocacy for Hong Kong
Closed-door conference trip blocked in Singapore.
declared 2025-09-29
What they said they would do
2025-09-29Open letterHe believes the denial of entry was for 'political' reasons.
Law unsure whether PRC was involved directly or indirectly.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Repair public finances within fiscal rules
Non-negotiable borrowing limits while funding priority investment.
declared 2025-09-29
What they said they would do
2025-09-29SpeechOur fiscal rules are non-negotiable — we will not borrow for day-to-day spending.
Conference eve speech backing Starmer's fiscal discipline message.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Mayor of London
Champion London diversity globally
UNGA and media platform positioning London as inclusive model.
declared 2025-09-24
What they said they would do
2025-09-24SpeechCities like London prove that openness and tolerance are not weaknesses — they are the foundations of prosperity.
UN General Assembly side event on cities and migration.
Global platform for London-as-model narrative against Trumpism.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Prime Minister; Conservative MP
Lead Britain on AI jobs and investment
Industrial strategy linking AI adoption to employment and tax policy.
declared 2025-09-20
What they said they would do
2025-09-20SpeechAI will transform every job in Britain — we must invest now or fall behind.
Speech linking AI industrial policy to National Insurance and skills funding.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Prime Minister; Conservative MP
Vindicate Brexit decision
Ongoing media campaign denying Britain is worse off after EU exit.
declared 2025-09-18
What they said they would do
2025-09-18InterviewBritain is not worse off because of Brexit — anyone who says so is talking down our country.
Rejecting OBR and Treasury analyses of Brexit economic impact.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of the French Republic
Deliver tangible migration results
Parliamentary pledge to show measurable progress on asylum, integration and border control.
declared 2025-09-16
What they said they would do
2025-09-16SpeechWe must deliver tangible results on migration — with humanity, solidarity and fairness at the centre of our approach.
Parliamentary migration speech promising concrete policy outcomes.
Macron's 'tangible results' framing sought to answer critics who said rhetoric had outpaced enforcement.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former President of the European Central Bank; former Prime Minister of Italy; Author of the EU Competitiveness Report
Replace backloaded EU strategies with dated deliverables
Brussels conference demand for accountable timelines on competitiveness, energy and single-market reforms.
declared 2025-09-16
What they said they would do
2025-09-16SpeechWe must move beyond broad strategies and backloaded timelines — we need concrete dates and deliverables, ambitious enough to demand real focus and collective effort.
Demand for accountability modeled on Single Market and euro success.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former President of the European Central Bank; former Prime Minister of Italy; Author of the EU Competitiveness Report
Mobilise joint debt for common EU projects
Finance competitiveness and defence integration through coalitions of willing and shared borrowing.
declared 2025-09-16
What they said they would do
2025-09-16SpeechThe next logical step would be to consider joint debt for common projects, either at EU level or among a coalition of member states, to amplify the benefits of coordination.
Draghi on financing competitiveness through enhanced cooperation and shared borrowing.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Prime Minister; Renaissance party figure
Prepare Renaissance for 2027 election
Build new Republic narrative and collective leadership model for presidential cycle.
declared 2025-09-15
What they said they would do
2025-09-15SpeechWe must build a new Republic — and prepare for the 2027 election with clarity, not illusions.
Major Arras speech on political renewal ahead of 2027.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Musician; Super Bowl LX halftime headliner
Keep Puerto Rico for Puerto Ricans
Fight the displacement and gentrification of the island — the through-line of Debí Tirar Más Fotos and his 30-show 'No Me Quiero Ir de Aquí' San Juan residency, which pumped an estimated $200M+ into the local economy instead of touring the US mainland.
declared 2025-09-11
What they said they would do
2025-09-11InterviewThere was the issue that... ICE could be outside (my concert venue). And it's something that we were talking about and very concerned about.
Explaining to i-D magazine why his Debí Tirar Más Fotos world tour included no US dates; he suggested US fans travel to his Puerto Rico residency instead. Date is the CNN article date.
The world's biggest touring act skipping the US over immigration enforcement made global headlines; Trump allies later vowed ICE agents would be present at his Super Bowl show.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
US Secretary of War
Rebuild the military around a "warrior ethos"
From the Department of War title to purged generals: the culture project is the point, the wars are the proof.
declared 2025-09-05
What they said they would do
2025-09-05ActionBecame "Secretary of War" as Trump signed EO 14347 restoring the Department of War title — legally a secondary designation, culturally a mission statement.
A formal rename requires Congress; the letterhead did not wait.
war.gov went live within days — the rebrand trended as triumph and self-parody simultaneously.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Actor and entrepreneur
Model learn-not-win dialogue across U.S. political camps
Keep working with people he disagrees with, including MAGA colleagues, via curiosity about each other's media algorithms rather than purity tests.
declared 2025-09-05
What they said they would do
2025-09-05SpeechSitting on set in America and working with somebody who's MAGA — I'm not MAGA; I'm not extreme anything, but certainly not that way — and I say, 'Hey, let's swap phones for a second. Let's see your algorithm. Check out mine.'
TIFF onstage conversation asked what it is like being Canadian in L.A. during the 'elbows up' era; Reynolds preached collaborative conflict resolution over us-vs-them identity politics.
Not-MAGA line dominated Canadian entertainment coverage of the festival appearance.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, ESPN First Take
Build a political media platform beyond ESPN
Launched the weekly SiriusXM politics show 'Straight Shooter' in September 2025 and appears regularly on NewsNation, after negotiating his $100M ESPN deal specifically to allow political talk.
declared 2025-09-02
What they said they would do
2025-09-02InterviewI will spare no one
Ahead of launching his weekly SiriusXM politics show 'Straight Shooter' on the P.O.T.U.S. channel, Smith told The Washington Post his political commentary would target both parties.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, Google & Alphabet
Close the antitrust chapter with the company intact
The remedies ruling kept Chrome; the appeal keeps the risk alive.
declared 2025-09-02
What they said they would do
2025-09-02ActionWon the antitrust remedies ruling: Google keeps Chrome and Android, but must end exclusive default deals and share search data with rivals. Shares soared.
The DOJ and 35 states are appealing. The existential breakup threat, for now, is off the table.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of Reform UK
Deport up to 600,000 via Operation Restoring Justice
Flagship Reform policy to remove illegal entrants and overstayers at scale.
declared 2025-08-26
What they said they would do
2025-08-26ActionOperation Restoring Justice would aim to deport up to 600,000 people who entered Britain illegally or overstayed visas.
BBC reporting on Reform UK's flagship deportation operation.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Singer-songwriter; most-followed musician alive
The wedding of the century, on her own terms
The engagement broke Instagram; the wedding will break whatever it happens on.
declared 2025-08-26
What they said they would do
2025-08-26Social postYour English teacher and your gym teacher are getting married. (the engagement post with Travis Kelce that broke Instagram's records: 2.5M+ reposts, 30M+ likes)
Meta confirmed it was the fastest post ever to a million reposts. Even Trump was asked for comment.
The single biggest social media post of 2025, by Meta's own accounting.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Prime Minister; Conservative MP
Make growth the Conservatives' number one priority
Post-election repositioning around economic expansion.
declared 2025-08-10
What they said they would do
2025-08-10InterviewEconomic growth has to be the number one priority — without it we cannot fund public services or cut taxes.
BBC interview on post-election Conservative economic strategy.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Iliad/Free; investor
Scale AI investment via OpenAI partnership
Position Iliad ecosystem in global AI value chain.
declared 2025-08-10
What they said they would do
2025-08-10InterviewOur OpenAI deal is about investment in the future — but media polarization is the real threat to democracy.
Interview on AI investment philosophy and media landscape.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Minister of the Interior
Hold immigration referendum
Put detention and migration policy to popular vote.
declared 2025-08-08
What they said they would do
2025-08-08StatementI promise a new text on detention extension and a referendum on immigration — the French people must decide.
Announcement of tougher detention and referendum pledge.
Referendum promise aligned Retailleau with RN while serving Macron government.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Prime Minister; Conservative MP
Launch Boriswave deportation push
Hard-line removal rhetoric to compete with Reform UK.
declared 2025-08-05
What they said they would do
2025-08-05InterviewWe need a Boriswave of deportations — send a clear signal that illegal entry will not be tolerated.
Coining 'Boriswave' deportation rhetoric alongside Farage competition.
Portmanteau drew mockery and right-wing enthusiasm in equal measure.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and Chief Engineer, Dyson
Shift UK culture toward makers and engineers
Public campaign celebrating manufacturing and invention.
declared 2025-08-01
What they said they would do
2025-08-01PublicationBritain needs more doers and fewer talkers — engineers, inventors, manufacturers who create wealth.
Company blog post on UK industrial culture.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and Chief Engineer, Dyson
Expand UK R&D investment
Conditional on government reducing regulatory burden.
declared 2025-08-01
What they said they would do
2025-08-01PublicationI want to invest more in Britain — but government must make it worthwhile for companies that invent here.
Conditional commitment to UK R&D expansion.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of El Salvador
Stay president as long as the people (and the constitution he rewrote) allow
Indefinite reelection is now constitutional, terms are six years, and the next election is moved to 2027.
declared 2025-07-31
What they said they would do
2025-07-31ActionHis supermajority amended the constitution to allow indefinite presidential reelection and six-year terms — clearing his path to rule beyond 2029, with the next election moved up to 2027.
Passed 57-3 in a single evening session. Bukele had once criticized Latin American leaders who clung to power.
The overnight constitutional rewrite trended globally: the "dictator" joke stopped reading as a joke to critics.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder & CEO, Meta
Build personal superintelligence for everyone
The organizing bet of Meta's second act: frontier labs, gigawatt data centers, and superintelligence "in sight" — distributed, he promises, to individuals.
declared 2025-07-30
What they said they would do
2025-07-30PublicationIn his "Personal Superintelligence" essay, declared superintelligence "in sight" — while hedging that Meta would be "rigorous about mitigating risks" and "careful about what we choose to open source."
The asterisk on a year-old open-source gospel; by 2026 Meta was no longer releasing its most powerful systems.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Executive Chairman, Samsung Electronics (Jay Y. Lee)
Win the AI semiconductor race
Texas ecosystem, Tesla foundry contract, and Korea–US collaboration rhetoric aimed at catching rivals in HBM/foundry.
declared 2025-07-28
What they said they would do
2025-07-28ActionSamsung announced a 22.8 trillion won ($16.5 billion) multiyear foundry contract (through 2033); Elon Musk confirmed Samsung's Taylor, Texas fab would make Tesla's next-generation AI6 chip.
Major win for Samsung's lagging foundry business; Taylor plant backed by CHIPS Act incentives.
Musk's X confirmation and Samsung's simultaneous announcement sent both stocks jumping and dominated tech SNS.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former US Director of National Intelligence
Get the Russiagate 'conspirators' prosecuted
Referred Obama and senior Obama-era officials to the Justice Department over an alleged 'treasonous conspiracy' to manufacture the Russia-collusion narrative.
declared 2025-07-23
What they said they would do
2025-07-23ActionDeclassified Russiagate-era documents and told a White House briefing they proved Obama and senior aides engineered a 'treasonous conspiracy' to manufacture the Russia-collusion narrative, referring the matter to the Justice Department.
Event date is the Wednesday White House briefing referenced in the July 25, 2025 article; reviews by Lawfare and CNN found the documents did not implicate Obama as claimed.
The DOJ referral of a former president by the sitting intelligence chief consumed a week of coverage and became the signature 'Deep State' fight of her tenure.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Conservative Party
Rebuild Conservative Party trust
Leadership mission after 2024 wipeout and Reform defection.
declared 2025-07-20
What they said they would do
2025-07-20SpeechWe have lost the trust of the British people — and rebuilding that trust is my first priority.
First speech as Conservative leader after July 2024 election defeat.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Virgin Group
Accelerate global clean-energy transition
Public advocacy and Virgin investments in renewables.
declared 2025-07-20
What they said they would do
2025-07-20SpeechGovernments must tip the balance towards clean energy — the private sector is ready but needs policy support.
Climate Action summit call for public-private clean-energy partnership.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder, Craft Ventures; former White House AI & Crypto Czar
Dollar dominance via stablecoins
Build on the GENIUS Act so blockchain-based digital dollars spread worldwide, creating trillions in Treasury demand and making the US the global crypto capital.
declared 2025-07-18
What they said they would do
2025-07-18SpeechThis GENIUS Act will unlock American dominance in the crypto industry by creating clear rules of the road.
Remarks as crypto czar at the East Room signing of the GENIUS Act, the first US federal stablecoin law, which he shepherded.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Deputy Prime Minister; Leader of the League
Uphold Open Arms acquittal at Cassation
Defend December 2024 acquittal after prosecutors' direct appeal, insisting border defence was lawful.
declared 2025-07-18
What they said they would do
2025-07-18SpeechI went through more than 30 hearings. The court acquitted me because there was no felony, recognising that defending borders is not a crime.
Statement after prosecutors filed a per saltum appeal against his December 2024 Open Arms acquittal.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Entrepreneur; Co-founder, Cost Plus Drugs
Push Democrats to an affordability-first message
Get the party to drop pure anti-Trump messaging and campaign on concretely lowering Americans' cost of living, starting with healthcare.
declared 2025-07-14
What they said they would do
2025-07-14InterviewIt's just 'Trump sucks.' That's the underlying thought of everything the Democrats do. 'Trump sucks.' Trump says the sky is blue. 'Trump sucks.' ... That's not the way to win! It's just not! Because it's not about Trump — it's about the people of the United States of America — and what's good for them!
On the Pod Save America podcast, telling Democrats their anti-Trump messaging is a losing strategy; date is that of the article reporting the appearance.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of the State Council
Shift toward a consumer-driven economy
Li’s stated transition path from manufacturing export dependence to domestic demand.
declared 2025-06-25
What they said they would do
2025-06-25SpeechConfident the world's No.2 economy could maintain a 'relatively rapid' growth rate as it transitions from a manufacturing-led model to a consumer-driven one.
Reuters paraphrase of Li’s Summer Davos keynote amid US trade-war damage.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chancellor of Germany
Lead a more assertive German role in EU and transatlantic security
Lead a more assertive German role in EU and transatlantic security
declared 2025-06-24
What they said they would do
2025-06-24SpeechGermany will work toward spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2029 and 1.5% on defence-related infrastructure, meeting and exceeding NATO targets.
Paraphrased coverage on defense-tech
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Mayor of London
Counter Trump migration narrative
Ongoing transatlantic rhetorical battle over mass migration.
declared 2025-06-20
What they said they would do
2025-06-20InterviewPresident Trump's attacks on mass migration are not just wrong — they are dangerous for democracies everywhere.
Khan responding to Trump speeches linking migration to civilizational threat.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Broadcaster; host, Piers Morgan Uncensored
Build Uncensored as free-speech platform
Media brand centred on contrarian interviews and monologues.
declared 2025-06-18
What they said they would do
2025-06-18InterviewI believe in free speech even when I disagree — that's the test most people fail.
Tucker Carlson challenged Morgan on speech absolutism.
Carlson 'ultimate test' clip circulated widely on social media.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, ZDF Magazin Royale
Expose right-wing media ecosystems that target teachers, journalists, and public
Expose right-wing media ecosystems that target teachers, journalists, and public institutions.
declared 2025-06-13
What they said they would do
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Huawei Technologies
Close the AI chip gap with the US
Ascend roadmap and theoretical research spending.
declared 2025-06-11
What they said they would do
2025-06-11InterviewWithout theoretical research, there will be no major breakthroughs and we will not catch up with the US.
Ren citing ~60 billion yuan annual R&D with ~30 billion on theory.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Minister of the Interior
End mass regularisations
Maintain 24% cut and eliminate grey zone of illegal presence.
declared 2025-06-10
What they said they would do
2025-06-10InterviewRegularisations are down 24 percent — we will not regularise people en masse.
Same France 2 interview citing regularisation statistics.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
47th President of the United States
Run the largest deportation operation in US history
A signature pledge, enforced with ICE surges and federalized troops in American cities over governors' objections.
declared 2025-06-07
What they said they would do
2025-06-07ActionFederalized thousands of California National Guard members over the governor's objection — a first in US history under 10 U.S.C. §12406 — deploying them, and later Marines, around ICE operations in Los Angeles.
Federal courts later ruled against the deployment; litigation continued into 2026. The clash made Gavin Newsom his most visible state-level adversary.
Footage of federalized troops in an American city saturated every platform for a week.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Virgin Group
Counter Paris Agreement withdrawal
Rally business community to continue climate commitments despite US exit.
declared 2025-06-05
What they said they would do
2025-06-05InterviewPulling out of Paris is a mistake — but businesses and entrepreneurs will keep driving the transition anyway.
Same interview criticising US climate policy reversal.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Independent MP for Islington North; former Labour leader
Establish independent Gaza public inquiry
Parliamentary pressure for formal investigation of UK role.
declared 2025-06-04
What they said they would do
2025-06-04SpeechWe need an independent public inquiry into the UK's role and responsibilities regarding Gaza — the government must not block the truth.
Commons debate on establishing independent Gaza inquiry.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of South Korea (Democratic Party)
Reopen a communication channel with North Korea
Pair strong US-alliance deterrence with talks and cooperation to reduce peninsula risk after Yoon-era freeze.
declared 2025-06-04
What they said they would do
2025-06-04Speechopen a communication channel with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula through talks and cooperation. (while maintaining "strong deterrence" via the US alliance)
AP paraphrase of inaugural foreign-policy lines stressing US-Japan cooperation and North Korea engagement.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of South Korea (Democratic Party)
Investigate and punish the martial-law bid
Full probe of Dec. 2024 and safeguards so the military is never again used in politics.
declared 2025-06-04
What they said they would do
2025-06-04SpeechNever again must a rebellion deprive the people of their sovereignty through weapons entrusted to protect them. We will conduct a thorough investigation, hold those responsible to account and establish firm safeguards against recurrence.
Direct reference to Yoon's Dec. 2024 martial-law attempt in the inaugural.
Framed the new presidency as the institutional aftermath of the light-stick resistance.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of South Korea (Democratic Party)
Shift Korea to a renewable-centered energy society
Replace imports, meet RE100 competitiveness, and build nationwide renewable networks.
declared 2025-06-04
What they said they would do
2025-06-04SpeechIn response to the global climate crisis, we will swiftly transition to a society centered on renewable energy. This includes replacing energy imports, enhancing corporate competitiveness through RE100 and revitalizing local areas with renewable energy networks that span the entire nation.
Growth chapter of the inaugural tying climate policy to industrial competitiveness.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Reform Party; National Assembly member for Hwaseong B
Reset conservatism via Reform Party, not PPP fusion
Post-election: innovation over alliances; keep third-force identity after 8.34% run.
declared 2025-06-03
What they said they would do
2025-06-03SpeechJudging by the results, the burden now facing the conservative bloc is to prioritize innovation over mere alliances.
Post-election jab at PPP fusion politics after refusing candidacy unification.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Bridgewater Associates
Get the debt defused before the heart attack
The book, the interviews, the gauges — all aimed at policymakers he says have three years, not thirty.
declared 2025-06-03
What they said they would do
2025-06-03PublicationPublished "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell" — warning the US faces an economic "heart attack" from its debt trajectory within a few years.
Annual interest on US debt crossed $1 trillion in 2026, on schedule with the book's warnings.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, Five Star Movement (M5S)
Suspend Israel arms and recognise Palestine
End military cooperation with Israel and pursue EU sanctions plus Italian recognition of Palestinian statehood.
declared 2025-05-29
What they said they would do
2025-05-29InterviewI would have suspended every agreement of military cooperation with Israel, stopped any residual supply of weapons, and asked the European Council to adopt a heavy package of EU sanctions against Israel while formally recognising the State of Palestine.
TPI interview outlining what Conte would do as premier on Gaza and Israel arms cooperation.
Conte contrasted Meloni's government with Spain's sharper condemnation of Israeli conduct in Gaza.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder & CEO, NVIDIA
Reopen the China market for US AI chips
Has lobbied across administrations to unwind export controls since NVIDIA's multi-billion-dollar H20 write-down.
declared 2025-05-21
What they said they would do
2025-05-21InterviewAll in all, the export control was a failure. The fundamental assumptions that led to the AI diffusion rule in the beginning, in the first place, has been proven to be fundamentally flawed.
Said US curbs cut NVIDIA's China market share from 95% to about 50% and pushed Chinese firms to innovate faster. NVIDIA disclosed a multi-billion-dollar write-down on unsold H20 chips.
"Export control was a failure" led every tech front page out of Computex.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Minister-President of Bavaria; Chairman, CSU
Maximize CSU bargaining power inside the CDU/CSU partnership ahead of state and
Maximize CSU bargaining power inside the CDU/CSU partnership ahead of state and federal elections.
declared 2025-05-15
What they said they would do
2025-05-15SpeechZeit news reported Dobrindt's figure that border rejections rose roughly 45 percent, statistics CSU leaders including Söder cited to validate their law-and-order approach.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, ZDF Magazin Royale
Use satire to weaken far-right narratives and mobilise liberal viewers ahead of
Use satire to weaken far-right narratives and mobilise liberal viewers ahead of key political moments.
declared 2025-05-09
What they said they would do
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chancellor of Germany
Implement stricter migration enforcement while maintaining skilled-labour immigr
Implement stricter migration enforcement while maintaining skilled-labour immigration pathways
declared 2025-05-06
What they said they would do
2025-05-06SpeechGermany must remain a country of immigration while enforcing the law more consistently and accelerating deportations of those without a right to stay.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chancellor of Germany
Meet elevated NATO spending targets and expand Bundeswehr capabilities
Meet elevated NATO spending targets and expand Bundeswehr capabilities
declared 2025-04-30
What they said they would do
2025-04-30ActionThe incoming Merz government pledged tougher border controls as one of its first commitments after taking office.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Adviser, Centrist Reform Alliance; Prime Minister 2011-2012
Enact selective separate surnames for married couples
Pass legislation letting spouses retain their own surnames, assembling a cross-party lower-house majority that includes Komeito against the LDP's traditional-family wing.
declared 2025-04-30
What they said they would do
2025-04-30ActionNoda's Constitutional Democratic Party moved to submit a Diet bill creating a system that would let married couples keep their respective surnames, with Noda saying such a bill could pass the lower house with the cooperation of Komeito, which supports the change.
Japan is the only country that legally requires married couples to adopt a single surname, and the LDP's right wing has blocked change for decades. Date is the date of the report.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former US Secretary of Transportation
Win back young men for Democrats
The manosphere tour's explicit thesis: the party's worst demographic slide is reversible by showing up.
declared 2025-04-27
What they said they would do
2025-04-27ActionLed the Democrats' 2028-minded push into the "manosphere" — hours-long sit-downs on comedy podcasts that had hosted Trump, defending the choice to argue in hostile rooms.
He explained the strategy on his own Substack: persuasion happens where people actually listen, not where parties feel safe.
The Flagrant sit-down clips circulated for weeks — praised as the model, mocked as pandering, watched either way.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
US Secretary of Health and Human Services
Strip synthetic dyes and additives from US food
Phase out all eight petroleum-based food dyes by end of 2026, close the self-affirmed GRAS loophole, and push MAHA-flavored dietary guidelines — mostly through voluntary industry pressure rather than formal bans.
declared 2025-04-22
What they said they would do
2025-04-22ActionAnnounced an HHS-FDA plan to phase out all eight petroleum-based synthetic food dyes — including Red 40 and Yellows 5 and 6 — from the US food supply by the end of 2026, the signature food action of his 'Make America Healthy Again' agenda.
Compliance for the six most common dyes rests largely on voluntary industry commitments rather than a formal ban.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Iliad/Free; investor
Acquire or reform France Télévisions
Bring entrepreneurial model to public broadcasting.
declared 2025-04-22
What they said they would do
2025-04-22TestimonyI want to buy France Télévisions — public broadcasting needs entrepreneurial energy, not bureaucratic drift.
Same hearing floating acquisition of public broadcaster.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Reform Party; National Assembly member for Hwaseong B
Make AI growth private-investment-led
Deregulate research and commercialization; stop competing on headline trillion-won budgets.
declared 2025-04-16
What they said they would do
2025-04-16InterviewThe fundamentals of the AI industry come from stimulating private investments. What's important is talking about deregulation, but discussing superficial things like 100 or 200 trillion won only shows a lack of understanding of this industry.
Attacked rivals' mega AI investment pledges as "scam-level" and Lee Jae-myung's free public AI as a "freebie."
Tech-credential candidate dunking on trillion-won AI bidding war clips widely.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the People's Party of Canada
Impose a complete immigration moratorium
Halt new permanent residents for as many years as needed to cool housing and reverse social strain from mass immigration.
declared 2025-04-11
What they said they would do
2025-04-11SpeechThe People's Party is going to solve the housing crisis in the simplest and most effective way possible, by imposing a complete moratorium on immigration for as many years as it takes to solve this crisis.
Same press availability; Bernier also blamed mass immigration as the root cause of housing shortages.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Broadcaster; host, Piers Morgan Uncensored
Hold Labour accountable on migration
Ongoing critique of Starmer border policy.
declared 2025-04-10
What they said they would do
2025-04-10BroadcastLabour's migration policy is an absolute disaster — Starmer promised control and delivered chaos.
Uncensored monologue attacking Labour immigration record.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of Alberta
Fast-track resource corridors and energy export capacity
Abandon policies that deepen U.S. dependence and build national corridors so Canada becomes an independent energy superpower.
declared 2025-04-02
What they said they would do
2025-04-02PublicationAs it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.
Premier's statement on a U.S. tariff announcement that appeared to uphold most CUSMA terms, including zero tariffs on energy and other key exports.
Smith tied short-term tariff relief to a longer project of pipelines and resource corridors.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, The Joe Rogan Experience
Press the administration he endorsed on its abuses
Deportation mistakes, war powers, Iran: the endorsement bought access, and he spends it on uncomfortable questions.
declared 2025-03-29
What they said they would do
2025-03-29InterviewIt's horrific... people who are not criminals are getting lassoed up and deported. Let's not let innocent gay hairdressers get lumped up with the gangs.
On the El Salvador prison deportations, four months after his Trump endorsement. He kept praising the border crackdown while attacking its mistakes.
The break heard across both bases: MAGA called it betrayal, liberals called it too late, everyone clipped it.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Secretary, Democratic Party (PD)
Halt Albania centre spending and restore solidarity
Stop the offshore CPR protocol and redirect resources to EU burden-sharing and domestic reception.
declared 2025-03-24
What they said they would do
2025-03-24SpeechThe CPRs in Albania will not work. Meloni and Piantedosi should stop and apologise for having squandered so many public resources in an inhuman protocol that tramples on fundamental rights and failed before it even began.
Statement after Interior Minister Piantedosi acknowledged problems with the two Albanian centres.
Schlein's 'will not work' line became shorthand for opposition claims the Albania model was dead on arrival.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chef and food campaigner
Replicate Scotland's school meal success UK-wide
Use Scottish research to pressure England on parity.
declared 2025-03-20
What they said they would do
2025-03-20InterviewScotland's research proves universal free school meals work — England needs to catch up.
Citing Scottish government data on free meal programmes.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, chairman and CEO, Xiaomi
Invest 60+ billion yuan in AI over three years
Announced at March 2025 SU7 event.
declared 2025-03-19
What they said they would do
2025-03-19SpeechOver the next three years, Xiaomi will invest more than 60 billion yuan (~$8.72 billion) in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).
SU7 upgrade launch event themed 'Full Ecosystem of Human x Car x Home'.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Reform Party; National Assembly member for Hwaseong B
Shrink and reorganize central ministries
Merge gender and unification functions; pursue minimum-government efficiency.
declared 2025-03-18
What they said they would do
2025-03-18SpeechProposed reevaluating ministries, including merging the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family with the Ministry of Health and Welfare, and shifting Unification Ministry functions to Foreign Affairs.
Nomination platform efficiency reforms; later campaign revived full abolition framing.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada
Repeal federal consumer and industrial carbon pricing
Pass legislation ending the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act backstop for both fuel charges and industrial emitters.
declared 2025-03-17
What they said they would do
2025-03-17SpeechThere will be no taxes on Canadian consumers, no taxes on Canadian industries.
L'Orignal, Ontario news conference pledging to repeal both the federal consumer carbon levy and industrial emissions pricing.
Extended 'axe the tax' beyond consumer fuel charges after Carney zeroed the consumer rate.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada
Eliminate GST on new homes under $1.3 million
Cut federal sales tax on qualifying new homes to lower purchase prices and spur construction.
declared 2025-03-17
What they said they would do
2025-03-25SpeechNobody can afford this. Mark Carney is out of touch and doesn't understand that Canadians are being forced to move away from the towns and cities they grew up in. This ends when we elect a Conservative government.
Vaughan announcement pledging to axe GST on new homes under $1.3 million, claiming savings up to $65,000.
Housing GST cut became a central affordability contrast with Liberals.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada
Build strategic energy and minerals reserve for tariff-free US access
Accumulate energy and critical-mineral leverage and use it to remove US sectoral tariffs.
declared 2025-03-17
What they said they would do
2026-05-03SpeechBuild up a massive strategic reserve of our energy and our minerals and use that as leverage to get tariff-free access to the United States economy.
Poilievre's stated alternative strategy in the same leverage debate with Carney.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Independent MP for Islington North; former Labour leader
Pass Palestine recognition bill
Legislative route to formal Palestinian state recognition.
declared 2025-03-15
What they said they would do
2025-03-15ActionI am sponsoring this bill because Palestinian recognition is a matter of international law, not political convenience.
Parliamentary bill page for Palestine recognition legislation.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Premier of the State Council
Deliver ~5% GDP growth in 2025
Official Two Sessions target tying growth to jobs and risk control.
declared 2025-03-05
What they said they would do
2025-03-05SpeechGDP growth of around 5 percent
Official 2025 macro target alongside ~5.5% urban unemployment and 12m new urban jobs.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-leader, Die Linke; Member of the Bundestag
Rebuild Die Linke vote share by converting social-media momentum into organized
Rebuild Die Linke vote share by converting social-media momentum into organized youth membership.
declared 2025-03-04
What they said they would do
2025-03-04SpeechAl Jazeera profiled Reichinnek wooing young Germans, describing her rise as part of Die Linke's effort to rebuild after poor federal-election results.
Paraphrased coverage on inequality
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Formula 1 driver; Ferrari
Succeed at Ferrari with values intact
High-profile team move while maintaining activism.
declared 2025-02-28
What they said they would do
2025-02-28InterviewMoving to Ferrari is a dream — and I'll bring my values with me.
Committing to Ferrari despite racist backlash.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Formula 1 driver; Ferrari
Continue fighting for diversity in motorsport
Ongoing platform activism despite political headwinds.
declared 2025-02-27
What they said they would do
2025-02-27InterviewI'm not going to stop using my platform to fight for diversity and inclusion — that's who I am.
Doubling down on activism commitment after Trump remarks.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder & CEO, Palantir
Make Palantir the operating system of Western defense
The Technological Republic is the argument; the contracts are the execution.
declared 2025-02-18
What they said they would do
2025-02-18PublicationPublished "The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West" — an indictment of Silicon Valley for chasing consumer apps and advertising while abandoning national purpose and defense.
Became a bestseller and the manifesto of the defense-tech movement.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder, Alibaba Group
Restore Alibaba's standing under new rules
Symbolic rehabilitation at Xi's symposium as first step.
declared 2025-02-17
What they said they would do
2025-02-17ActionJack Ma's attendance, his seating in the front row, even though he did not speak, and his handshake with Xi are clear signs he has been rehabilitated.
Analyst Bill Bishop quoted in BBC on symbolism of Ma's return.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
General Secretary of the Communist Party; President of China
Advance Chinese modernization and national rejuvenation
Central Party goal framing tech, security and growth under Xi’s third-term agenda toward the 2027 Congress.
declared 2025-02-17
What they said they would do
2025-02-17SpeechIt is the right time for private enterprises and entrepreneurs to demonstrate their capabilities.
Symposium with private entrepreneurs including Jack Ma and Liang Wenfeng; translated from state readout.
Jack Ma’s front-row handshake went global — read as end-of-crackdown symbolism even though Ma did not speak.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
General Secretary of the Communist Party; President of China
Restore private-sector confidence without ending Party control
Use the entrepreneur symposium to signal policy stability and recruit tech leaders into the US rivalry fight.
declared 2025-02-17
What they said they would do
2025-02-17SpeechThe Party and state's fundamental guidelines and policies for private economic development have been incorporated into the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and will be consistently upheld and implemented — this cannot and will not change.
Same symposium; AP quoting CCTV summary of Xi’s remarks.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Vice President of the United States
Make national conservatism the governing ideology of the West
From Munich to the campaign trail: not just winning elections but replacing the post-war liberal consensus with a nationalist one.
declared 2025-02-14
What they said they would do
2025-02-14SpeechThe threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values — values shared with the United States of America.
Stunned European allies by accusing them of censorship and elite rule; reportedly received almost no applause.
European leaders' stunned reactions and the "threat from within" line ricocheted across every platform for a week.
Source: Munich Security Conference (transcript via Foreign Policy) ↗
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the People's Party of Canada
Block Canadian retaliatory tariffs
Oppose dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs and instead reopen free-trade talks with Trump immediately.
declared 2025-02-13
What they said they would do
2025-02-13SpeechTrade wars are bad for everyone, but they are much worse for a small country with fewer options. We simply cannot win a trade war with the United States. It is very unlikely that Trump will back down. All this will do is provoke a massive economic crisis in Canada until we are forced to capitulate.
St-Georges-de-Beauce press conference announcing he would run again and opposing dollar-for-dollar retaliation backed by other federal leaders.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader of the People's Party of Canada
Answer Trump with border and immigration crackdown
Control the border, crack down on traffickers, expel illegal migrants, and freeze immigration as the path to a renegotiated trade deal.
declared 2025-02-13
What they said they would do
2025-02-13SpeechWe must address Trump's immediate concerns about Canada by redoubling our efforts to control our border, cracking down on drug traffickers, expelling all illegal migrants, and imposing a complete moratorium on immigration to Canada.
Same Beauce speech outlining Bernier's alternative to retaliatory tariffs: border enforcement plus an immigration freeze, then renegotiate free trade.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO of Shopify
Ship buy-local features in Shop
Roll out region-specific buy-local tools so merchants and consumers can support domestic sellers during the tariff fight.
declared 2025-02-02
What they said they would do
2025-02-02Social postI love Canada and want it to thrive. I built Canada's biggest tech company here because I know it's a special place.
X posts accompanying Lütke's commitment to roll out buy-local features in the Shop app for Canada, the U.S. and Mexico after criticizing retaliatory tariffs.
Shopify followed the critique with product changes to help merchants ride the buy-Canadian wave.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO of Shopify
Stop Canadian counter-tariffs from deepening the trade war
Persuade Ottawa that hitting back is the wrong choice and that better options exist than reciprocal levies.
declared 2025-02-01
What they said they would do
2025-02-01Social postAmerica will shrug it off. Canada will decline. It's simply the wrong choice in a possibility space where much better options would have been available.
X post after Ottawa announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to Trump's 25% levies; Globe reported Lütke called the Canadian response 'simply the wrong choice'.
Rare public break by a top TSX CEO against Canada's tariff response.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO of Shopify
Meet border and fentanyl terms Trump set
Get borders under control and crack down on fentanyl dens as the path to proving Canada still works with America.
declared 2025-02-01
What they said they would do
2025-02-01Social postCanada thrives when it works with America together. Win by helping America win. Trump believes that Canada has not held its side of the bargain, and he set terms to prove that we still work together: get the borders under control and crack down on fentanyl dens. These are things that every Canadian wants its government to do, too. These are not crazy demands, even if they came from an unpopular source.
X commentary defending Trump's stated border and fentanyl conditions while slamming Ottawa for not preventing the trade war.
Critics said Lütke took Trump's border narrative at face value; allies praised candour from Canada's biggest tech CEO.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Member, House of Representatives; Prime Minister 2024-2025
Get a selective separate-surname system into Japanese law
Legislate an option for married couples to keep different surnames -- a position he has held for years, softened to a maiden-name 'compromise' in office, and has not abandoned.
declared 2025-01-28
What they said they would do
2025-01-28ActionAs prime minister, retreated from his long-standing support for a selective dual-surname system for married couples, floating instead a 'compromise' of legally expanding the use of maiden names, after strong opposition from conservatives inside his own LDP.
Ishiba had been one of the few senior LDP figures on record for letting spouses keep separate surnames; written as an event description because the article text could not be opened to verify exact wording.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder and CEO, Tencent
Win China's consumer AI race with Yuanbao
2025-26 AI spending surge and red-envelope user acquisition.
declared 2025-01-26
What they said they would do
2025-01-26Speech2025 will be a big year for AI, and among Tencent's business lines, the only one currently worth significant investment and spending is AI.
Tencent annual staff meeting Jan 26, 2025; English summary of Ma Huateng remarks.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
47th President of the United States
Deliver the "golden age of America"
The organizing promise of the second term: reindustrialization through tariffs, energy dominance, and a remade federal government.
declared 2025-01-20
What they said they would do
2025-01-20SpeechThe golden age of America begins right now. From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world.
Opening lines of his second inaugural, delivered in the Capitol Rotunda.
Source: Second inaugural address (transcript via CBS News) ↗
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chef and food campaigner
End child hunger in British schools
Twenty-year campaign mission from School Dinners to present.
declared 2025-01-15
What they said they would do
2025-01-15PublicationTwenty years after Jamie's School Dinners, we still haven't fixed the problem — child hunger in Britain is a national scandal.
Anniversary reflection on school food campaign.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-leader, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
Maximise AfD vote share and coalition leverage despite cordon sanitaire
Maximise AfD vote share and coalition leverage despite cordon sanitaire
declared 2025-01-14
What they said they would do
2025-01-14InterviewIn media coverage of AfD policy, Weidel's remigration agenda is described as targeting rejected asylum applicants and people deemed insufficiently integrated for deportation.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-leader, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
Make remigration and border closure central to federal migration law
Make remigration and border closure central to federal migration law
declared 2025-01-11
What they said they would do
2025-01-11SpeechWeidel called for remigration at the AfD party conference, advocating large-scale deportations as core party policy ahead of the federal election.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
Remigration term drew international attention and domestic controversy.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-leader, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
Roll back wind and broader Energiewende expansion
Roll back wind and broader Energiewende expansion
declared 2025-01-11
What they said they would do
2025-01-11SpeechWeidel demanded that Germany's borders be closed completely as part of the AfD's migration platform.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-leader, Die Linke; Member of the Bundestag
Hold all democratic parties to a uniform firewall against far-right cooperation.
Hold all democratic parties to a uniform firewall against far-right cooperation.
declared 2025
What they said they would do
2025SpeechNZZ analyzed Reichinnek's steep ascent after her Brandmauer speech, noting the address helped stabilize Die Linke leadership amid internal crisis.
Paraphrased coverage on democracy-institutions
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-leader, Die Linke; Member of the Bundestag
Advance redistributive economic policy as the party's core differentiation from
Advance redistributive economic policy as the party's core differentiation from SPD Greens.
declared 2025
What they said they would do
2025SpeechMeedia reported Reichinnek's Bundestag speech garnered roughly 29 million social-media views, turning the co-leader into a digital star for Die Linke.
Paraphrased coverage on democracy-institutions
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Minister-President of Bavaria; Chairman, CSU
Keep Bavaria's CSU dominant by owning the law-and-order migration brand national
Keep Bavaria's CSU dominant by owning the law-and-order migration brand nationally.
declared 2025
What they said they would do
2025SpeechZDF reported on Interior Minister Dobrindt's expanded border rejections and controls, a policy Söder's CSU championed as proof that tougher migration enforcement can be implemented at Germany's frontiers.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Minister-President of Bavaria; Chairman, CSU
Ensure federal border policy matches Bavaria's long-standing enforcement demands
Ensure federal border policy matches Bavaria's long-standing enforcement demands.
declared 2025
What they said they would do
2025SpeechZDF coverage noted federal authorities turning back migrants at borders when another EU state is responsible, a mechanism Söder publicly demanded for years before the CDU/CSU migration U-turn.
Paraphrased coverage on immigration
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and co-leader, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)
Break conservative parties' uniform exclusion of BSW alongside AfD in coalition
Break conservative parties' uniform exclusion of BSW alongside AfD in coalition talks.
declared 2025
What they said they would do
2025SpeechIn a t-online podcast interview during the Bundestag campaign, Wagenknecht criticized Germany's Ukraine policy, arguing continued military support prolongs suffering and that diplomacy should take priority.
Paraphrased coverage on war-and-peace
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Canada
Build a Team Canada response with premiers
Coordinate federal and provincial governments to attract capital and push back against America First economic nationalism.
declared 2024-12-16
What they said they would do
2024-12-16Open letterThat means pushing back against 'America First' economic nationalism with a determined effort to fight for capital and investment and the jobs they bring. That means working in good faith and humility with the Premiers of the provinces and territories of our great and diverse country, and building a true Team Canada response.
Same letter's prescription for confronting Trump-era economic nationalism.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Canada
Advise Ukraine on economic development unpaid
Leave the Commons to serve as an unpaid economic adviser to President Zelenskyy while supporting Ukraine's democracy fight.
declared 2024-12-16
What they said they would do
2026-01-13Social postUkraine is at the forefront of today's global fight for democracy, and I welcome this chance to contribute on an unpaid basis as an economic adviser to [Zelensky].
Announcement she would leave Parliament to become an unpaid economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Sparked Conservative criticism that an MP cannot advise a foreign government.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Psychologist and author
Base life and work in the United States
Leave a Canadian environment he describes as personally uncomfortable and legally trending toward totalitarianism if Online Harms rules pass.
declared 2024-12-06
What they said they would do
2024-12-06InterviewThe issue with the College of Psychologists is very annoying, to say the least, and the new legislation that the Liberals are attempting to push through, Bill C-63, we'd all be living in a totalitarian hellhole if it passes.
Mikhaila Peterson podcast interview announcing his move to the United States; National Post and Global News reported the remarks the following week.
Exit narrative fused professional-college conflict with Online Harms opposition.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Chancellor of Germany; SPD Bundestag member
Preserve social-democratic influence in Bundestag opposition
Preserve social-democratic influence in Bundestag opposition
declared 2024-11-10
What they said they would do
2024-11-10InterviewScholz defended his refusal to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, arguing escalation control and operational complexity.
Paraphrased coverage on defense-tech
Taurus debate dominated late-2024 security discourse.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action; Greens co-leader
Accelerate Ukraine military aid and European defence industrial capacity
Accelerate Ukraine military aid and European defence industrial capacity
declared 2024-11-10
What they said they would do
2024-11-10InterviewHabeck criticised Scholz on TV, saying Germany's weapons deliveries to Ukraine were always too late and too little.
Paraphrased coverage on defense-tech
Public coalition split on Ukraine aid timing.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action; Greens co-leader
Advance green transition while managing household cost backlash
Advance green transition while managing household cost backlash
declared 2024-11-10
What they said they would do
2024-11-10InterviewHabeck argued Scholz should show more courage on Ukraine support, including on Taurus, breaking with the chancellor on live television.
Paraphrased coverage on war-and-peace
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action; Greens co-leader
Reposition Germany's economy for weaponised US–China competition
Reposition Germany's economy for weaponised US–China competition
declared 2024-11-10
What they said they would do
2024-11-10InterviewHabeck defended continued Ukraine support with reference to the oath of office and Germany's responsibility to help defend against aggression.
Paraphrased coverage on war-and-peace
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Host, The Joe Rogan Experience
Stay the biggest neutral-ish room in American media
The value of the platform is that nobody owns it — a position both parties test constantly.
declared 2024-11-04
What they said they would do
2024-11-04Social postFor the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump. (posting his Musk interview on election eve, saying Musk made "the most compelling case for Trump you'll hear")
Came days after his three-hour Trump interview drew ~50M views. The "podcast election" had a closing statement.
The final-night endorsement of the podcast election — arguably the most valuable media endorsement of 2024.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Musician; Super Bowl LX halftime headliner
Break the two-party grip on Puerto Rico
Push the island past the PNP–PPD duopoly toward self-determination, backing the independence-aligned Alianza with his fame and roughly $500,000 in billboards; after its 2024 loss he said he still has hope.
declared 2024-11-03
What they said they would do
2024-11-03SpeechI'm here because I love my country.
Speaking at the San Juan closing rally for independence-aligned gubernatorial candidate Juan Dalmau, after spending nearly $500,000 on island-wide billboards criticizing Puerto Rico's ruling parties.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder & CEO, Anthropic
Reach powerful AI safely — and first among the careful
Anthropic's wager: the 75% good outcome is won by being at the frontier, not by abstaining from it.
declared 2024-10-11
What they said they would do
2024-10-11PublicationIn "Machines of Loving Grace," argued powerful AI could compress a century of scientific progress into 5-10 years — curing most diseases and lifting billions from poverty — "if we get it right."
His definitive optimist case, written explicitly to balance his reputation as a doomer.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, Reconquête; media polemicist
Achieve negative net migration
Stop legal immigration and implement remigration programme.
declared 2024-09-20
What they said they would do
2024-09-20InterviewI am for zero immigration — but also for negative immigration. We need remigration, not more arrivals.
Radio interview defining Reconquête immigration doctrine.
Zemmour's 'negative immigration' coinage went viral as harder than RN's platform.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Psychologist and author
Publicize College re-education process to the end
Complete remedial coaching under protest while documenting constraints as a warning about professional regulators policing political speech.
declared 2024-08-09
What they said they would do
2024-08-09PublicationBut I am instead going to see this contemptible process through to what will almost certainly be its absurd end. I am going to find out just what sort of person will step forward to 're-educate' me.
After Supreme Court of Canada leave was refused, Peterson said he would undergo College of Psychologists social-media remedial coaching under protest rather than surrender his licence.
Cemented the 're-education' frame in coverage of the College dispute.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and co-leader, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)
Force a diplomatic off-ramp in Ukraine and a parliamentary inquiry into Nord Str
Force a diplomatic off-ramp in Ukraine and a parliamentary inquiry into Nord Stream attacks.
declared 2024-08
What they said they would do
2024-08SpeechZeit reported Wagenknecht's push for a Bundestag investigative committee into the Nord Stream pipeline explosions, framing unanswered questions about the attacks as central to Germany's energy and security debate.
Paraphrased coverage on war-and-peace
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder & CEO, Pershing Square
Stay the market's loudest public intellectual
From Herbalife to Harvard to endorsements: the X feed is as central to his franchise as the fund.
declared 2024-07-13
What they said they would do
2024-07-13Social postI am going to formally endorse @realDonaldTrump. (...) I assure you that I have made this decision carefully, rationally, and by relying on as much empirical data as possible.
Posted hours after the assassination attempt on Trump; viewed more than 19 million times. Ackman had donated to Democrats for two decades.
Nineteen million views: the loudest Wall Street defection of the 2024 race.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder, DeepSeek
Reach AGI through original research
Stated DeepSeek mission in Waves interviews.
declared 2024-07-01
What they said they would do
2024-07-01InterviewOur goal is still to go for AGI.
Liang on DeepSeek's long-term mission attracting top PhDs.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Actor, martial artist, filmmaker
Promote Chinese culture and treasure recovery through film
'A Legend' and prior nationalist epics.
declared 2024-06-25
What they said they would do
2024-06-25InterviewAfter the film debuted, two of these heads were actually returned!
Chan on CZ12 (2012) and bronze zodiac heads returned in 2013.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Leader, Team Mirai
Make 'digital democracy' the default operating system of Japanese government
Scale broad listening and version-controlled, participatory policymaking from one campaign into standard practice — AI mediating between citizens and the state at volumes the Diet cannot handle unaided, with legislation rendered into plain language and political money made visible by default.
declared 2024-06-20
What they said they would do
2024-06-20PublicationUsing GitHub, a tool commonly used in open-source development, we will make it possible for anyone to propose requests on our policies. (The final decision on whether or not each opinion is reflected is made by me myself, as the person responsible.)
Announcing the 'participatory manifesto' for his independent run in the 2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election, in which he argued that any single person's viewpoint is inherently limited and pledged to open-source the campaign's digital infrastructure afterwards. Translated from the Japanese original.
The policy repository drew hundreds of issues and pull requests from members of the public and became the most-discussed feature of a campaign that mainstream Japanese media otherwise barely covered; it was dissected in engineering write-ups on Qiita and logmi and is still the reference point for 'open-source politics' in Japan.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President, National Rally; Member of the European Parliament
Abolish birthright citizenship
End droit du sol and restrict Schengen to EU nationals.
declared 2024-06-10
What they said they would do
2024-06-10Policy proposalWe will abolish birthright citizenship and restrict Schengen to EU nationals only — droit du sol is finished under the National Rally.
Immigration programme unveiled ahead of 2024 snap parliamentary elections.
Droit du sol abolition became the headline RN pledge of the snap election.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs
Shape China's international narrative
Career arc from spokesperson to vice minister embodying assertive public diplomacy.
declared 2024-05-27
What they said they would do
2024-05-27ActionAppointed Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs by the State Council on May 27, 2024.
Promotion from spokesperson/director of press department to vice minister.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Rebuilding Korea Party leader; progressive prosecutor-reform figure (post-pardon)
End "prosecutorial dictatorship" via structural reform laws
Separate investigation from indictment; create serious-crime investigation office; curb political prosecutors.
declared 2024-04-26
What they said they would do
2024-04-26SpeechThe Yoon Suk Yeol regime is a prosecution regime where prosecutorialism is rampant. … We completely separate the investigation from the prosecution by abolishing the prosecutor's right to investigate, establishing a new investigation office in charge of serious crimes.
Press conference pushing the party's "four laws on prosecution reform."
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chief Executive of Hong Kong
Restore Hong Kong as a secure international hub
Sell security laws to business while prosecuting high-profile dissent.
declared 2024-03-19
What they said they would do
2024-03-19SpeechWe have fulfilled our constitutional responsibility of enacting local legislation under Article 23 of the Basic Law. We have accomplished this historic mission, living up to the trust placed in us by the Central Government and the country.
Address to LegCo after third reading of the Safeguarding National Security Bill.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Psychologist and author
Defeat or permanently block Online Harms speech architecture
Prevent Bill C-63-style commissions, peace bonds and human-rights speech prosecutions from becoming Canadian law.
declared 2024-03-07
What they said they would do
2024-03-07PublicationWhat we have instead is a bill designed to demolish whatever right to free speech those of us in our increasingly sad little banana-republic country have left, and that is already damned little, and to centralize power further in the hands of a self-absorbed, ignorant and increasingly contemptuous elite.
National Post opinion column calling Bill C-63 Trudeau's illiberal manifesto and warning of an unlimited free-speech policing bureaucracy.
Became a flagship conservative critique of the Online Harms Act.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Rebuilding Korea Party leader; progressive prosecutor-reform figure (post-pardon)
Build a Seventh Republic with guaranteed livelihood and welfare
Founding vision linking prosecution reform to an expanded social compact.
declared 2024-03-03
What they said they would do
2024-03-03Speechend the prosecutorial dictatorship early and restore the values of a democratic republic … create a 'Seventh Republic' where people's livelihood and welfare are guaranteed after ending the prosecutorial dictatorship.
Stated party goals at launch: prosecution reform plus expanded welfare.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs; Greens co-leader
Demonstrate measurable progress on women's rights in partner countries
Demonstrate measurable progress on women's rights in partner countries
declared 2024-02-23
What they said they would do
2024-02-23SpeechAs foreign minister, Baerbock used Germany's UN Security Council seat to spotlight Russian aggression against Ukraine and defend international law.
Paraphrased coverage on war-and-peace
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Prime Minister; Renaissance party figure
Prioritise employment and farmers
Government focus on jobs and agricultural sector amid protests.
declared 2024-01-30
What they said they would do
2024-01-30SpeechEmployment is my absolute priority — and our farmers who feed the nation deserve respect, not contempt.
Policy speech amid farmer protests across France.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Founder and co-leader, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)
Establish BSW as the dominant protest party in eastern Germany by combining left
Establish BSW as the dominant protest party in eastern Germany by combining left economics with restrictive migration rhetoric.
declared 2024
What they said they would do
2024SpeechIn a Berliner Zeitung interview, Wagenknecht rejected being labeled a voice of Russia, calling such defamation sick and insisting she advocates negotiated peace rather than prolonging the war.
Paraphrased coverage on war-and-peace
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of Argentina
Kill Argentine inflation for good
From a 289% annual peak to about 32% by late 2025; he considers single digits, and the credibility that comes with them, the true finish line.
declared 2023-12-10
What they said they would do
2025-10-26ActionWon a surprise midterm landslide — taking about 41.5% even in Peronist Buenos Aires province — with inflation down from a 289% peak to roughly 32% and Argentina's first fiscal surplus in over a decade.
Read globally as vindication of shock therapy; by mid-2026, cabinet turmoil and a recovering opposition were testing "the aura."
The upset win flooded X with chainsaw memes and "Milei was right" threads.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Rapper, songwriter; leader of BTS (RM)
Complete service and return to group work
Military enlistment farewell framed 18 months as prelude to reunion (~2025 discharge window in contemporary reporting).
declared 2023-12-10
What they said they would do
2023-12-10Social postI was really happy to live as a BTS member over the past 10 years. As the end is another beginning, I believe that something good will wait for us when this is all over. … Goodbye for now.
Weverse farewell before Army boot camp enlistment with V on Dec 11, 2023.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder & General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz
Kill the doomer policy agenda
Pacing petitions, safety regulation, state AI bills — a16z lobbies against all of it, loudly.
declared 2023-10-16
What they said they would do
2023-10-16PublicationThe Techno-Optimist Manifesto: "We believe any deceleration of AI will cost lives... We believe in accelerationism." AI doomers are described as a cult; technology's critics as the enemy.
Five thousand words that became the founding document of the tech right.
The manifesto detonated a weeks-long discourse war — quoted, annotated and parodied across every platform.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, SpaceX / Tesla / xAI
Build AI that "understands the true nature of the universe" at xAI
The goal declared at xAI's founding in 2023, pursued through the development and deployment of the Grok model series.
declared 2023-07-12
What they said they would do
2023-07-12ActionAnnounced the founding of xAI, a new AI company. "The goal of xAI is to understand the true nature of the universe."
Roughly four months after signing the open letter calling for a pause on large-scale AI training.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs; Greens co-leader
Embed feminist foreign-policy standards across all German diplomatic portfolios
Embed feminist foreign-policy standards across all German diplomatic portfolios
declared 2023-03-01
What they said they would do
2023-03-01SpeechBaerbock presented Germany's feminist foreign policy guidelines centred on rights, resources, and representation — the 3Rs — across all foreign-policy areas.
Paraphrased coverage on gender-family
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs; Greens co-leader
Maintain strong Ukraine advocacy at the UN and with EU partners
Maintain strong Ukraine advocacy at the UN and with EU partners
declared 2023-03-01
What they said they would do
2023-03-01SpeechBaerbock argued feminist foreign policy is not symbolic but requires embedding gender equality in security, trade, and humanitarian decision-making.
Paraphrased coverage on democracy-institutions
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Executive Chairman, Samsung Electronics (Jay Y. Lee)
Contribute to national economy via investment and jobs
Stated aim at pardon announcement; recurring justification for chaebol leadership restoration.
declared 2022-08-12
What they said they would do
2022-08-12SpeechI will work hard for the national economy.
Response to Yoon's Liberation Day special pardon restoring rights after bribery conviction tied to Park Geun-hye; government cited economic crisis and need for tech investment/jobs.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Foreign Ministry spokesperson; deputy head, Boundary and Ocean Affairs
Defend China's territorial and political claims
Career arc from wolf-warrior spokesperson to boundary affairs.
declared 2022-05-10
What they said they would do
2022-05-10SpeechThere is only one China in the world. Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese territory.
Zhao responding to US State Department website changes on Taiwan, May 10 2022 press conference.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Co-founder, Founders Fund; Chairman, Palantir
Install the post-liberal right's next generation
Vance was the proof of concept: identify, fund, and place leaders rather than persuade electorates.
declared 2022-05-03
What they said they would do
2022-05-03ActionPoured about $15 million into JD Vance's Ohio Senate race — the largest donation ever made to a single Senate candidate — and brokered Vance's reconciliation with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Two years later his protege was vice president. Thiel declined to fund the 2024 campaign itself.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Chancellor of Germany; SPD Bundestag member
Balance Ukraine support with escalation control
Balance Ukraine support with escalation control
declared 2022-02-27
What they said they would do
2022-02-27SpeechScholz declared a Zeitenwende — a historic turning point — pledging a €100 billion special fund and sustained rearmament after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Paraphrased coverage on war-and-peace
Zeitenwende became the defining term of Scholz's chancellorship.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Former Chancellor of Germany; SPD Bundestag member
Rebuild SPD credibility after the 2025 election loss
Rebuild SPD credibility after the 2025 election loss
declared 2022-02-27
What they said they would do
2022-02-27SpeechScholz committed Germany to investing more than 2% of GDP in defence and modernising the Bundeswehr in response to the changed security environment.
Paraphrased coverage on defense-tech
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Entrepreneur; Co-founder, Cost Plus Drugs
Break the PBM model and make cost-plus pricing the U.S. default
Grow Cost Plus Drugs — now wired into TrumpRx.gov — until transparent cost-plus pricing forces pharmacy benefit managers and other middlemen out of the drug supply chain.
declared 2022-01-19
What they said they would do
2022-01-19ActionLaunched the Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company online pharmacy, selling roughly 100 generic medications at manufacturer cost plus a flat 15% markup and pledging 'radically transparent' pricing — e.g. the cancer generic imatinib at $47.40 versus a retail price above $9,657.
Launch of his flagship post-Mavericks venture, built around the mission that every American should have access to safe, affordable medicines at the lowest possible price.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Writer-director; creator of Squid Game
Force audiences to question the competition system
Use entertainment allegory so viewers ask who designed cliff-edge capitalism — not only in Korea.
declared 2021-11-18
What they said they would do
2021-11-18SpeechWho has created this system of competition, who has pushed us into a system that makes us feel like we are standing on the edge of a cliff every day?
Same forum cycle; framed Squid Game as posing questions to audiences across capitalist societies during the pandemic.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Rapper, songwriter; leader of BTS (RM)
Platform youth as 'welcome generation'
Counter lost-generation framing with agency, vaccination, and future-oriented hope at global forums.
declared 2021-09-20
What they said they would do
2021-09-20SpeechI've heard that people in their teens and 20s today are being referred to as COVID's lost generation… But I think it's a stretch to say they're lost just because the paths they tread can't be seen by grownup eyes. We think that instead of the 'lost generation,' a more appropriate name would be the 'welcome generation.'
SDG Moment at UNGA as special presidential envoy; group also highlighted vaccination and youth environmental concern.
'Welcome generation' reframing and Permission to Dance video at UN HQ dominated entertainment and diplomacy coverage.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
President of El Salvador
Make the Bitcoin bet pay off for the state
The strategic reserve kept growing even after the IMF deal confined the legal-tender experiment; vindication is measured in the BTC price.
declared 2021-09-07
What they said they would do
2021-09-07ActionMade El Salvador the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, usable for anything from coffee to taxes.
Announced at a Miami Bitcoin conference and passed by his supermajority within days; the IMF objected from the start.
The first Bitcoin-nation announcement made him crypto Twitter's head of state.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
US Representative (NY-14)
Pass a Green New Deal
The 2019 resolution never passed, but its framework — public investment, jobs guarantee, decarbonization — remains her stated end-state for the US economy.
declared 2019-02-07
What they said they would do
2019-02-07ActionIntroduced the Green New Deal resolution with Sen. Ed Markey: a ten-year national mobilization pairing decarbonization with a federal jobs guarantee.
One month into her first term; the resolution reframed the entire US climate debate.
The rollout dominated cable and Twitter for weeks — mocked on the right, canonized on the left.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Singer-songwriter; most-followed musician alive
Spend political capital only when it moves outcomes
The pattern since 2018: rare, precise, maximal-impact interventions — never a running commentary.
declared 2018-10-07
What they said they would do
2018-10-07Social postBroke a career of political silence on Instagram: Marsha Blackburn's voting record "appalls and terrifies me" — endorsing her Democratic opponents in Tennessee.
Vote.org reported a surge in registrations in the following days, disproportionately young.
The post that ended the "Taylor is apolitical" era — registration spikes made it a case study in celebrity mobilization.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Rapper, songwriter; leader of BTS (RM)
Advance Love Myself / anti-violence messaging
Continue UNICEF partnership themes of self-love and ending violence against children and youth.
declared 2018-09-24
What they said they would do
2018-09-24SpeechMaybe I made a mistake yesterday, but yesterday's me is still me. I am who I am today, with all my faults. Tomorrow I might be a tiny bit wiser, and that's me, too. … I have come to love myself for who I was, who I am, and who I hope to become.
Same Generation Unlimited address tying personal narrative to the Love Myself / #ENDviolence partnership.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, SpaceX / Tesla / xAI
Build a self-sustaining city on Mars
Making humanity a multiplanetary species is framed as SpaceX's ultimate goal. Publicly laid out at the 2016 IAC keynote and pursued since through the Starship program.
declared 2016-09-27
What they said they would do
2016-09-27SpeechHistory is going to bifurcate along two directions. One path is we stay on Earth forever (...). The alternative is to become a spacefaring civilization and a multi-planet species.
The first detailed public presentation of SpaceX's Mars transport architecture (now Starship), including the goal of a self-sustaining city on Mars.
Source: IAC Guadalajara keynote, "Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species" ↗
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
CEO, OpenAI
Build AGI that benefits all of humanity
OpenAI's founding mission, which he still frames as the company's purpose — now expressed as bringing the singularity on gently.
declared 2015-12-11
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
Give more than 99% of his wealth to philanthropy
Pledged in the 2010 Giving Pledge. He has followed through with regular annual gifts of Berkshire stock.
declared 2010-06-16
What they said they would do
2010-06-16PublicationPledged in "My Philanthropic Pledge" to give more than 99% of his wealth to philanthropy during his lifetime or at death.
Co-launched the Giving Pledge with Bill and Melinda Gates, calling on the wealthy to commit the majority of their fortunes to philanthropy.
What the record shows happened
Still open — nothing has settled this one yet.
