Where the record does not settle it either way
27 goals declared by 25 people. Partly delivered, redefined along the way, or measured differently by each side — so it is left open rather than scored. The status is the editors' reading of the record, not a verdict on the person; the words it starts from are quoted and linked underneath each one.
0 of 27 carry a dated source for the outcome itself. The rest are marked, because a status with nothing to click through to is our word and nothing more.
Member, House of Representatives; Prime Minister 2024-2025
A sixth act
Undeclared. He ruled himself out of the September 2025 leadership race that replaced him, but has kept up an unusually heavy media schedule since leaving office and has not closed the door on a return; Japanese commentary openly speculates about it.
declared 2026-07-29
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former US Secretary of Transportation
Decide on 2028
Top-tier polling without a declaration; the Substack-and-podcasts operation keeps the option warm.
declared 2026-07-23
What they said they would do
2026-07-23ActionPlaced in the top tier of New Hampshire's 2028 Democratic field alongside Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, without declaring anything.
His non-campaign — Substack, podcasts, town halls — keeps polling like a campaign.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Leader, Democratic Party for the People
Get into government without being absorbed by the LDP
He keeps refusing to join the Takaichi coalition while making his party the government's indispensable policy partner in a chamber where the ruling bloc still lacks an upper-house majority. Whether that ends in a formal coalition, a standing external pact, or permanent opposition is undeclared.
declared 2026-07-02
What they said they would do
2026-07-02InterviewWhen we cannot even run the Diet amicably, you would not normally go into a coalition. Even when I think I want to cooperate, one thing after another happens that pushes that away, so I am bewildered.
On a BS Fuji programme, ruling out joining the Takaichi coalition for now and citing the ruling parties' forcing through of the lower-house seat-reduction bill and the "second capital" bill; the ruling bloc holds 352 lower-house seats but still lacks an upper-house majority. Translated from the Japanese original.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former US Director of National Intelligence
A 2028 presidential run
Never declared — but CNN reported Trump took her Hiroshima video as a sign she was using his administration as a stepping stone, telling her that if she wanted to run for president she shouldn't be in it.
declared 2026-05-23
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
US Representative (NY-14)
Decide 2028: White House or Senate
Building toward one of two campaigns — the presidency, or unseating Chuck Schumer — with the decision deliberately unhurried.
declared 2026-05-14
What they said they would do
2026-05-14InterviewOn a 2028 presidential run: "Can't say that I've ruled it out." Her team is building toward a decision between the presidency and a Senate challenge to Chuck Schumer.
Mid-2026 polls put her atop the Democratic field in New Hampshire and nationally.
"Can't say that I've ruled it out" set off a solid week of 2028 bracketology.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Prime Minister of Israel
Outlast the trial in office
Six years of proceedings, repeatedly paused by war. Conviction would end the era; delay is a strategy in itself.
declared 2026-04-10
What they said they would do
2026-04-10ActionHis corruption trial resumed after the Iran ceasefire; he sought again to delay testimony — six years into bribery, fraud and breach-of-trust charges he denies.
War has repeatedly paused the proceedings — a pattern his critics call the point.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Leader, Sanseito
Turn Sanseito into a party of government
Kamiya set a target of 30 lower house seats and reached 15, calling that a partial success and continuing to build toward the leverage needed to set national policy. He has not declared a bid to lead a government, so the ambition remains undeclared.
declared 2026-04-09
What they said they would do
2026-04-09InterviewCalled Sanseito's rise to 15 lower house seats a "75% success" at a Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan press conference, where the party's new catchphrase "I am Japan" was noted to have gained less traction than hoped.
His first major post-election appearance before the foreign press, billed as covering imperial succession, immigration, defense and foreign ties. Written as an event description because the club's page does not present the phrase as a full verbatim quotation.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Leader, Team Mirai
Turn twelve Diet seats into governing weight
In nine months Team Mirai went from a one-man party to 11 lower-house seats plus Anno's own upper-house seat, absorbing unaffiliated voters and finishing just behind Sanseito on the proportional vote. Anno has declared no run at national leadership, but he now leads a party larger than several established rivals and treats cross-party AI policy as the lever for growing it.
declared 2026-03-13
What they said they would do
2026-03-13InterviewAs the speed of global change keeps rising, the processing capacity of Nagatacho hasn't increased that much.
In an English-language interview after Team Mirai's 11-seat breakthrough, Anno laid out three pillars — bold investment in AI, autonomous vehicles, robotics and research; protecting people's livelihoods today because 'bold vision means nothing if people are struggling right now'; and upgrading politics and public administration through technology.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Host, The Tucker Carlson Show
A 2028 run he insists is not happening
Marjorie Taylor Greene floated 'Tucker 2028' after his break with Trump and his Polymarket nomination odds hit roughly 10% in June 2026; Carlson says 'Of course, I'm not planning to run for president' — while keeping a national audience and grievance narrative warm.
declared 2026-03-06
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Prime Minister of Japan
Build a two-thirds amendment bloc in the upper house
Her real bottleneck: the LDP-Ishin coalition holds a supermajority in the lower house but only a minority in the House of Councillors, where in July 2026 it had to force a second-capital bill through by a razor-thin margin. She has not said how she intends to get to two-thirds there — by courting opposition parties, by the next upper-house election, or by another gamble.
declared 2026-02-20
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Leader, Japan Innovation Party; Governor of Osaka
Return to national politics
Undeclared but openly hinted: he has said he would study a move back to the Diet if the metropolis initiative passes a referendum, which is the obvious route from party leader to a run at prime minister.
declared 2026-02-17
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Host, ESPN First Take
Decide on a 2028 Democratic presidential run
Says he is 'giving strong consideration' to being on the 2027 debate stage and will spend 2026 studying the issues before deciding; he has never formally declared and has elsewhere suggested he would not give up his media income.
declared 2026-02-13
What they said they would do
2026-02-13InterviewI will confess to you, I'm giving strong consideration to being on that debate stage for 2027. ... I've got this year coming up 2026, to think about it, to study, to know the issues.
In a CBS Sunday Morning interview with Robert Costa, Smith said he was moving closer to a 2028 Democratic bid, calling himself a fiscal conservative and social liberal.
Set off a week of 2028 coverage; Costa said the interview reminded him of covering Trump in 2013-14, when a TV personality's presidential talk was still being laughed off.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former First Lady of South Korea (wife of Yoon Suk Yeol)
Clear corruption allegations
Denied stock and bribery charges; mixed court outcomes including bribery conviction and stock acquittal in one trial.
declared 2026-01-28
What they said they would do
2026-01-28ActionSeoul Central District Court sentenced her to one year and eight months in prison for accepting Unification Church bribes; cleared her of stock-price manipulation and Political Funds Act charges in that trial.
Bribes/gifts alleged to total at least ~$200,000 including Chanel bags and a diamond necklace; further cases remained.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Adviser, Centrist Reform Alliance; Prime Minister 2011-2012
Build a governing centre out of moderate conservatives and liberals
Noda's stated project is a wholesale realignment of Japanese politics in which a visible centre pulls in both moderate conservatives and liberals to form an alternative government. The February 2026 rout and his resignation as co-leader left him pursuing this from an advisory role rather than the front bench, so the ambition is undeclared as a comeback plan.
declared 2026-01-24
What they said they would do
2026-01-24SpeechRather than an election about changing the government, I have a feeling this will become a political-realignment election - one that holds the possibility that, if the centre can show its presence, both moderate conservatives and liberals will gather together.
Said during a street speech in Tokyo two weeks before the February 8 general election, after Noda had led the CDP into a merger with Komeito to form the Centrist Reform Alliance on January 15. Translated from the Japanese original.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former US Representative (GA-14)
A 2028 presidential run she denies wanting
TIME reported in November 2025 that she had privately discussed running in 2028; Greene answered, 'I'm not running for President and never said I wanted to' — even as commentators keep floating her as a contender and she keeps the door visibly ajar.
declared 2025-11-23
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Leader, Democratic Party for the People
Become prime minister
He confirmed in October 2025 that he would accept nomination as the opposition's unified candidate for prime minister, and has never withdrawn the ambition; with 28 seats out of 465 he has no arithmetic path of his own, so it remains an undeclared long game.
declared 2025-10-15
What they said they would do
2025-10-15InterviewThe answer to both of those questions is yes.
Answering reporters who asked whether the Constitutional Democratic Party had called for a unified opposition candidate for prime minister and whether his own name had been raised as that candidate, a week after the LDP-Komeito coalition collapsed. Translated from the Japanese original.
For about a week Japanese and foreign media ran the scenario of a 28-seat party leader becoming prime minister; Bloomberg headlined him "Japan's surprise kingmaker" with a shot at the premiership before Ishin sided with Takaichi instead.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Minister of Defense
Become prime minister
He finished third in the 2024 LDP leadership race and lost the 2025 runoff to Sanae Takaichi 185-156. He has not declared a third run, and Takaichi's February 2026 landslide makes one unlikely soon, but he remains the party's most-polled future leader.
declared 2025-10-04
What they said they would do
The declaration has not been tied to a sourced statement yet.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Entrepreneur; Co-founder, Cost Plus Drugs
A 2028 presidential run — only if Trump seeks a third term
He says he will not run and won't put his family through a campaign, but keeps one explicit trigger: a Trump third-term attempt, which he calls 'a true threat.'
declared 2025-08-15
What they said they would do
2025-08-15InterviewI'm not going to do it. I've said the only way I would do it is if Trump tried to run for a third term. Because then that's just changing everything, right? And that's a true threat.
On Ben Smith's Semafor podcast, ruling out a 2028 presidential run except in the event of a Trump third-term attempt; he dismissed the traditional Democratic 2028 field as 'meh.'
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Governor of California
Keep the 2028 door open
He has never formally declared a presidential run — this tracks an ambition universally attributed to him and never denied. His national addresses, podcast and trolling operation all read as pre-campaign infrastructure.
declared 2025-06-10
What they said they would do
2025-06-10SpeechCalifornia may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next. Democracy is next. (...) Democracy is under assault before our eyes.
Delivered after President Trump federalized the California National Guard and deployed Marines during Los Angeles immigration protests.
The address was clipped into the most-watched Democratic speech of 2025.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former Leader of the New Democratic Party
Entrench dental and pharmacare before Conservatives could govern
Delay an election long enough that households receive benefits and future governments face higher political cost for repeal.
declared 2025-04-28
What they said they would do
2025-04-25SpeechWe wanted more time. We wanted people to actually benefit from the dental care and the pharmacare. We wanted people to actually get those benefits. We wanted to improve people's lives.
Same Toronto availability explaining why New Democrats kept Liberals afloat long enough for programs to reach households.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Vice President of the United States
Win the 2028 Republican nomination
Never formally declared — but he says he plans to "sit down" with Trump to discuss 2028, and every poll treats him as the frontrunner-in-waiting.
declared 2025-01-20
What they said they would do
2024-07-15ActionSelected as Trump's running mate at the Republican National Convention — completing the arc from Never Trump essayist to heir apparent, with Peter Thiel brokering the relationship.
Thiel had bankrolled his Senate race and introduced him to Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
His selection sent old quotes viral within minutes — the fastest opposition-research dump in VP history.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Canada
Keep fiscal capacity for a US tariff war
Limit discretionary political spending so Ottawa retains reserves to respond to aggressive US tariffs.
declared 2024-12-16
What they said they would do
2024-12-16Open letterThat means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.
Public resignation letter to Justin Trudeau posted hours before the fall economic statement she was due to deliver.
Triggered the Liberal crisis that culminated in Trudeau's January 2025 resignation.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former People Power Party leader; National Assembly member (independent track after PPP exit)
Appoint special inspector for presidential family corruption
Sought to force an independent inspector amid Kim Keon Hee controversies; triggered internal PPP rift.
declared 2024-10-24
What they said they would do
2024-10-24SpeechIt would be hard to gain the public's understanding (for such a stance) under the current circumstances. (pushing appointment of an independent inspector for presidential family corruption)
Supreme Council fight with pro-Yoon floor leaders over probing first lady Kim Keon Hee.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Former People Power Party leader; National Assembly member (independent track after PPP exit)
Pass a third-party special counsel on Marine Chae's death
Leadership bid promise to lead rather than block the special counsel bill.
declared 2024-07-14
What they said they would do
2024-07-14SpeechAt this point, I don't think our party can afford to oppose the special counsel bill. On the contrary, we have to step up and lead the way in passing the bill. (on investigating the death of Marine Cpl. Chae)
Bid for PPP leadership after April election defeat; also pledged more "horizontal" party-government relations.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
President of Argentina
Dollarize the economy and close the central bank
The signature campaign promise. Two years in, the peso and the central bank both survive — deferred, he says; abandoned, say critics.
declared 2023-12-10
What they said they would do
2023-12-10SpeechAnnounced "shock adjustment" at his inauguration with the phrase that became his government's motto: gradualism requires financing, and "lamentablemente, no hay plata" — unfortunately, there is no money.
Delivered to supporters outside Congress; the crowd cheered the bad news, and "no hay plata" became a meme across Latin America.
"No hay plata" spawned cumbia remixes and became Latin America's meme of the year.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
47th President of the United States
End the war in Ukraine
Promised repeatedly in the campaign — once as "24 hours," later recast as sarcasm — and pursued through on-off negotiations; the war continued into 2026.
declared 2023-05-10
What they said they would do
2023-05-10SpeechThey're dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I'll have that done — I'll have that done in 24 hours.
A promise repeated throughout the 2024 campaign.
The "24 hours" pledge clip was replayed millions of times — first as promise, later as punchline.
Source: CNN presidential town hall, May 2023 (via The Hill) ↗
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
Writer-director; creator of Squid Game
Explore aging and generational conflict
Stated interest in a future work on aging populations and intergenerational conflict (2021 forum).
declared 2021-11-18
What they said they would do
2021-11-18SpeechIn the 21st century, I thought that maybe we were seeing the limits of capitalism. Everybody is now in this huge competition, and once you fail at the competition, then you cannot ever recover from it. You're pushed more and more to the bottom of society.
Seoul Digital Forum / SBS D Forum remarks after Squid Game's global breakout.
'Limits of capitalism' became the go-to headline for left cultural readings of the show.
What the record shows happened
Not yet sourced. The status above is an editorial reading of the record; until a dated source is attached here, take it as our reading and not as evidence.
